PMID- 10048899
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 19990225
LR  - 20191210
IS  - 1077-9450 (Print)
IS  - 1077-9450 (Linking)
VI  - 20
IP  - 2
DP  - 1999 Feb 1
TI  - Comparison of viral load and human leukocyte antigen statistical and neural 
      network predictive models for the rate of HIV-1 disease progression across two 
      cohorts of homosexual men.
PG  - 129-36
AB  - We compared the performance of HIV-1 RNA and models based on human leukocyte 
      antigen (HLA) in predicting the rate of HIV-1 disease progression using both 
      linear regression and neural network models across two different cohorts of 
      homosexual men. In all, 139 seroconverters from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study 
      were used as the training set and 97 seroconverters from the District of Columbia 
      Gay (DCG) cohort were used for validation to assess the generalizability of 
      trained predictive models. Both viral load and HLA markers were strongly 
      predictive of disease progression (p < .0001 and p = .001, respectively), with 
      viral load superior to HLA (change in -2 log likelihood [-2LL] 26.7 and 10.2, 
      respectively, in proportional hazards models). Consideration of both HLA markers 
      and viral load offered no significant predictive advantage over viral load alone 
      in most cases; however, HLA-based predictions obtained from neural networks 
      modeling improved the discrimination among patients with high viral load (p = 
      .02). Viral load, HLA scores, and rapid disease progression were moderately 
      correlated (p < .01 for all three pairs of these variables). The median viral 
      load was 10(3.70) copies/ml among DCG patients who had more favorable than 
      unfavorable HLA markers and 10(4.66) copies/ml among patients with more 
      unfavorable than favorable HLA markers. Viral load is a simpler, stronger 
      predictor of disease progression than early developed HLA models, but neural 
      network methods and further refined HLA models may offer additional prognostic 
      information, especially for rapid progressors. The correlation between viral load 
      and HLA markers suggests a possible HLA effect on setting viral load levels.
FAU - Ioannidis, J P
AU  - Ioannidis JP
AD  - HIV Research Branch, Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and 
      Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA. 
      jioannid@otenet.gr
FAU - Goedert, J J
AU  - Goedert JJ
FAU - McQueen, P G
AU  - McQueen PG
FAU - Enger, C
AU  - Enger C
FAU - Kaslow, R A
AU  - Kaslow RA
LA  - eng
GR  - 5-M01-RR-00722/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States
GR  - U01-AI-35042/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States
GR  - U01-AI-35043/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States
GR  - etc.
PT  - Comparative Study
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
PL  - United States
TA  - J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Hum Retrovirol
JT  - Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes and human retrovirology : 
      official publication of the International Retrovirology Association
JID - 9501482
RN  - 0 (Genetic Markers)
RN  - 0 (HLA Antigens)
RN  - 0 (RNA, Viral)
SB  - IM
MH  - Cohort Studies
MH  - Genetic Markers
MH  - HIV Infections/genetics/*immunology/*virology
MH  - HIV Seropositivity/genetics/immunology/virology
MH  - *HIV-1/isolation & purification
MH  - HLA Antigens/*genetics
MH  - Homosexuality, Male
MH  - Humans
MH  - Male
MH  - Models, Biological
MH  - Neural Networks, Computer
MH  - Prognosis
MH  - RNA, Viral/blood
MH  - Time Factors
EDAT- 1999/02/12 00:00
MHDA- 1999/02/12 00:01
CRDT- 1999/02/12 00:00
PHST- 1999/02/12 00:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 1999/02/12 00:01 [medline]
PHST- 1999/02/12 00:00 [entrez]
AID - 10.1097/00042560-199902010-00004 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Hum Retrovirol. 1999 Feb 1;20(2):129-36. doi: 
      10.1097/00042560-199902010-00004.