PMID- 12002537
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20020521
LR  - 20190605
IS  - 0950-2688 (Print)
IS  - 0950-2688 (Linking)
VI  - 128
IP  - 2
DP  - 2002 Apr
TI  - Quantification of transmission in one-to-one experiments.
PG  - 193-204
AB  - We study the statistical inference from data on transmission obtained from 
      one-to-one experiments, and compare two algorithms by which the reproduction 
      ratio can be quantified. The first algorithm, the transient state (TS) algorithm, 
      takes the time course of the epidemic into account. The second algorithm, the 
      final size (FS) algorithm, does not take time into account but is based on the 
      assumption that the epidemic process has ended before the experiment is stopped. 
      The FS algorithm is a limiting case of the TS algorithm for the situation where 
      time tends to infinity. So far quantification of transmission has relied almost 
      exclusively on the FS algorithm, even if the TS algorithm would have been more 
      appropriate. Its practical use, however, is limited to experiments with only a 
      few animals. Here, we quantify the error made when the FS algorithm is applied to 
      data of one-to-one experiments not having reached the final size. We conclude 
      that given the chosen tests, the FS algorithm underestimates the reproduction 
      ratio R0, is liberal when testing H0: R0 > or = 1 against H1: R0 < 1, is 
      conservative when testing H0: R0 < or = 1 against H1: R0 > 1 and calculates the 
      same probability as the TS algorithm when testing H0: R(0-control) = 
      R(0-treatment) against H1: R(0-control) > R(0-treatment) We show how the power of 
      the test depends on the duration of the experiments and on the number of 
      replicates. The methods are illustrated by an application to porcine reproductive 
      and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV).
FAU - Velthuis, A G J
AU  - Velthuis AG
AD  - Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Institute for Animal Science and Health, 
      Edelhertweg, Lelystad, The Netherlands.
FAU - de Jong, M C M
AU  - de Jong MC
FAU - de Bree, J
AU  - de Bree J
FAU - Nodelijk, G
AU  - Nodelijk G
FAU - van Boven, M
AU  - van Boven M
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
PL  - England
TA  - Epidemiol Infect
JT  - Epidemiology and infection
JID - 8703737
SB  - IM
MH  - *Algorithms
MH  - Animals
MH  - *Disease Transmission, Infectious
MH  - Epidemiologic Studies
MH  - Humans
MH  - *Models, Statistical
MH  - Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome/transmission
MH  - Reproducibility of Results
MH  - Sensitivity and Specificity
PMC - PMC2869812
EDAT- 2002/05/11 10:00
MHDA- 2002/05/22 10:01
PMCR- 2003/04/01
CRDT- 2002/05/11 10:00
PHST- 2002/05/11 10:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2002/05/22 10:01 [medline]
PHST- 2002/05/11 10:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2003/04/01 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 10.1017/s0950268801006707 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Epidemiol Infect. 2002 Apr;128(2):193-204. doi: 10.1017/s0950268801006707.