PMID- 18430204
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20080708
LR  - 20220409
IS  - 1475-2840 (Electronic)
IS  - 1475-2840 (Linking)
VI  - 7
DP  - 2008 Apr 22
TI  - Development and validation of a risk score for hospitalization for heart failure 
      in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus.
PG  - 9
LID - 10.1186/1475-2840-7-9 [doi]
AB  - BACKGROUND: There are no risk scores available for predicting heart failure in 
      Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Based on the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry, this 
      study aimed to develop and validate a risk score for predicting heart failure 
      that needs hospitalisation in T2DM. METHODS: 7067 Hong Kong Chinese diabetes 
      patients without history of heart failure, and without history and clinical 
      evidence of coronary heart disease at baseline were analyzed. The subjects have 
      been followed up for a median period of 5.5 years. Data were randomly and evenly 
      assigned to a training dataset and a test dataset. Sex-stratified Cox 
      proportional hazard regression was used to obtain predictors of HF-related 
      hospitalization in the training dataset. Calibration was assessed using 
      Hosmer-Lemeshow test and discrimination was examined using the area under 
      receiver's operating characteristic curve (aROC) in the test dataset. RESULTS: 
      During the follow-up, 274 patients developed heart failure event/s that needed 
      hospitalisation. Age, body mass index (BMI), spot urinary albumin to creatinine 
      ratio (ACR), HbA1c, blood haemoglobin (Hb) at baseline and coronary heart disease 
      during follow-up were predictors of HF-related hospitalization in the training 
      dataset. HF-related hospitalization risk score = 0.0709 x age (year) + 0.0627 x 
      BMI (kg/m2) + 0.1363 x HbA1c(%) + 0.9915 x Log10(1+ACR) (mg/mmol) - 0.3606 x 
      Blood Hb(g/dL) + 0.8161 x CHD during follow-up (1 if yes). The 5-year probability 
      of heart failure = 1-S0(5)EXP0.9744 x (Risk Score - 2.3961). Where S0(5) = 
      0.9888 if male and 0.9809 if female. The predicted and observed 5-year 
      probabilities of HF-related hospitalization were similar (p > 0.20) and the 
      adjusted aROC was 0.920 for 5 years of follow-up. CONCLUSION: The risk score had 
      adequate performance. Further validations in other cohorts of patients with T2DM 
      are needed before clinical use.
FAU - Yang, Xilin
AU  - Yang X
AD  - Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 
      Hong Kong SAR, China. yang.xilin@cuhk.edu.hk
FAU - Ma, Ronald C
AU  - Ma RC
FAU - So, Wing-Yee
AU  - So WY
FAU - Kong, Alice P
AU  - Kong AP
FAU - Ko, Gary T
AU  - Ko GT
FAU - Ho, Chun-Shun
AU  - Ho CS
FAU - Lam, Christopher W
AU  - Lam CW
FAU - Cockram, Clive S
AU  - Cockram CS
FAU - Tong, Peter C
AU  - Tong PC
FAU - Chan, Juliana C
AU  - Chan JC
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
PT  - Validation Study
DEP - 20080422
PL  - England
TA  - Cardiovasc Diabetol
JT  - Cardiovascular diabetology
JID - 101147637
SB  - IM
MH  - Aged
MH  - Cohort Studies
MH  - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*epidemiology
MH  - Female
MH  - Follow-Up Studies
MH  - Heart Failure/*epidemiology
MH  - Hong Kong/epidemiology
MH  - Hospitalization/*statistics & numerical data
MH  - Humans
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Predictive Value of Tests
MH  - Registries/standards
MH  - Reproducibility of Results
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - Sensitivity and Specificity
PMC - PMC2377240
EDAT- 2008/04/24 09:00
MHDA- 2008/07/09 09:00
PMCR- 2008/04/22
CRDT- 2008/04/24 09:00
PHST- 2008/01/17 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2008/04/22 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2008/04/24 09:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2008/07/09 09:00 [medline]
PHST- 2008/04/24 09:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2008/04/22 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 1475-2840-7-9 [pii]
AID - 10.1186/1475-2840-7-9 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - Cardiovasc Diabetol. 2008 Apr 22;7:9. doi: 10.1186/1475-2840-7-9.