PMID- 18643828
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20080924
LR  - 20211020
IS  - 1539-6924 (Electronic)
IS  - 0272-4332 (Print)
IS  - 0272-4332 (Linking)
VI  - 28
IP  - 3
DP  - 2008 Jun
TI  - Mechanistic modeling of emergency events: assessing the impact of hypothetical 
      releases of anthrax.
PG  - 723-40
LID - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01055.x [doi]
AB  - A modular system for source-to-dose-to-effect modeling analysis has been 
      developed based on the modeling environment for total risk studies (MENTOR),((1)) 
      and applied to study the impacts of hypothetical atmospheric releases of anthrax 
      spores. The system, MENTOR-2E (MENTOR for Emergency Events), provides 
      mechanistically consistent analysis of inhalation exposures for various release 
      scenarios, while allowing consideration of specific susceptible subpopulations 
      (such as the elderly) at the resolution of individual census tracts. The 
      MENTOR-2E application presented here includes atmospheric dispersion modeling, 
      statistically representative samples of individuals along with corresponding 
      activity patterns, and population-based dosimetry modeling that accounts for 
      activity and physiological variability. Two hypothetical release scenarios were 
      simulated: a 100 g release of weaponized B. anthracis over a period of (a) one 
      hour and (b) 10 hours, and the impact of these releases on population in the 
      State of New Jersey was studied. Results were compared with those from simplified 
      modeling of population dynamics (location, activities, etc.), and atmospheric 
      dispersion of anthrax spores. The comparisons showed that in the two release 
      scenarios simulated, each major approximation resulted in an overestimation of 
      the number of probable infections by a factor of 5 to 10; these overestimations 
      can have significant public health implications when preparing for and responding 
      effectively to an actual release. This is in addition to uncertainties in 
      dose-response modeling, which result in an additional factor of 5 to 10 variation 
      in estimated casualties. The MENTOR-2E system has been developed in a modular 
      fashion so that improvements in individual modules can be readily made without 
      impacting the other modules, and provides a first step toward the development of 
      models that can be used in supporting real-time decision making.
FAU - Isukapalli, S S
AU  - Isukapalli SS
AD  - Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute, NJ 08854, USA. 
      sastry@fidelio.rutgers.edu
FAU - Lioy, P J
AU  - Lioy PJ
FAU - Georgopoulos, P G
AU  - Georgopoulos PG
LA  - eng
GR  - P30 ES005022/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States
GR  - P30 ES005022-22/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
PT  - Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
PL  - United States
TA  - Risk Anal
JT  - Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
JID - 8109978
SB  - IM
MH  - Anthrax/*epidemiology
MH  - Bacillus anthracis
MH  - *Bioterrorism
MH  - Decision Support Techniques
MH  - Disaster Planning/*methods
MH  - Emergencies/epidemiology
MH  - Environmental Exposure
MH  - Humans
MH  - Inhalation Exposure
MH  - Models, Theoretical
MH  - New Jersey
MH  - Risk Assessment/*methods
MH  - Risk Management
MH  - Spores, Bacterial/metabolism
PMC - PMC3066661
MID - NIHMS277079
EDAT- 2008/07/23 09:00
MHDA- 2008/09/25 09:00
PMCR- 2011/03/30
CRDT- 2008/07/23 09:00
PHST- 2008/07/23 09:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2008/09/25 09:00 [medline]
PHST- 2008/07/23 09:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2011/03/30 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - RISK1055 [pii]
AID - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01055.x [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Risk Anal. 2008 Jun;28(3):723-40. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01055.x.