PMID- 21352788
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20110705
LR  - 20220409
IS  - 1878-0067 (Electronic)
IS  - 1755-4365 (Print)
IS  - 1878-0067 (Linking)
VI  - 2
IP  - 4
DP  - 2010 Dec
TI  - HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual risk 
      behavior in the Middle East and North Africa.
PG  - 173-82
LID - 10.1016/j.epidem.2010.08.003 [doi]
AB  - BACKGROUND: HIV prevalence is low in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) 
      region, though the risk or potential for further spread in the future is not well 
      understood. Behavioral surveys are limited in this region and when available have 
      serious limitations in assessing the risk of HIV acquisition. We demonstrate the 
      potential use of herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence as a marker for 
      HIV risk within MENA. METHODS: We designed a mathematical model to assess whether 
      HSV-2 prevalence can be predictive of future HIV spread. We also conducted a 
      systematic literature review of HSV-2 seroprevalence studies within MENA. 
      RESULTS: We found that HSV-2 prevalence data are rather limited in this region. 
      Prevalence is typically low among the general population but high in established 
      core groups prone to sexually transmitted infections such as men who have sex 
      with men and female sex workers. Our model predicts that if HSV-2 prevalence is 
      low and stable, then the risk of future HIV epidemics is low. However, expanding 
      or high HSV-2 prevalence (greater than about 20%), implies a risk for a 
      considerable HIV epidemic. Based on available HSV-2 prevalence data, it is not 
      likely that the general population in MENA is experiencing or will experience 
      such a considerable HIV epidemic. Nevertheless, the risk for concentrated HIV 
      epidemics among several high-risk core groups is present. CONCLUSIONS: HSV-2 
      prevalence surveys provide a useful mechanism for identifying and corroborating 
      populations at risk for HIV within MENA. HSV-2 serology offers an effective tool 
      for probing hidden sexual risk behaviors in a region where quality behavioral 
      data are limited.
CI  - Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
FAU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J
AU  - Abu-Raddad LJ
AD  - Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, 
      Cornell University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha, Qatar. 
      lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu
FAU - Schiffer, Joshua T
AU  - Schiffer JT
FAU - Ashley, Rhoda
AU  - Ashley R
FAU - Mumtaz, Ghina
AU  - Mumtaz G
FAU - Alsallaq, Ramzi A
AU  - Alsallaq RA
FAU - Akala, Francisca Ayodeji
AU  - Akala FA
FAU - Semini, Iris
AU  - Semini I
FAU - Riedner, Gabriele
AU  - Riedner G
FAU - Wilson, David
AU  - Wilson D
LA  - eng
GR  - K23 AI087206/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
PT  - Review
PT  - Systematic Review
DEP - 20100915
PL  - Netherlands
TA  - Epidemics
JT  - Epidemics
JID - 101484711
SB  - IM
MH  - Africa, Northern/epidemiology
MH  - *Disease Outbreaks
MH  - Female
MH  - Forecasting/methods
MH  - HIV Infections/*epidemiology/transmission/virology
MH  - HIV-1/isolation & purification
MH  - Herpes Simplex/*epidemiology/virology
MH  - Herpesvirus 2, Human/*isolation & purification
MH  - Homosexuality, Male/statistics & numerical data
MH  - Humans
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle East/epidemiology
MH  - Models, Biological
MH  - Population Surveillance/methods
MH  - Prevalence
MH  - Seroepidemiologic Studies
MH  - Unsafe Sex/*statistics & numerical data
PMC - PMC3722433
MID - NIHMS471013
EDAT- 2011/03/01 06:00
MHDA- 2011/07/06 06:00
PMCR- 2013/07/25
CRDT- 2011/03/01 06:00
PHST- 2010/01/18 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2010/08/26 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2010/08/31 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2011/03/01 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2011/03/01 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2011/07/06 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2013/07/25 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - S1755-4365(10)00059-9 [pii]
AID - 10.1016/j.epidem.2010.08.003 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Epidemics. 2010 Dec;2(4):173-82. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2010.08.003. Epub 2010 Sep 
      15.