PMID- 21788628
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20120511
LR  - 20240322
IS  - 1935-5548 (Electronic)
IS  - 0149-5992 (Print)
IS  - 0149-5992 (Linking)
VI  - 34
IP  - 9
DP  - 2011 Sep
TI  - Two-step approach for the prediction of future type 2 diabetes risk.
PG  - 2108-12
LID - 10.2337/dc10-2201 [doi]
AB  - OBJECTIVE: To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus 
      (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose 
      concentration (1-h PG). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The model was developed in a 
      cohort of 1,562 nondiabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and 
      validated in 2,395 nondiabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the 
      basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood 
      pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a 
      certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 
      1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further 
      refine their future T2DM risk. RESULTS: We used the San Antonio Diabetes 
      Prediction Model (SADPM) to generate the initial risk score. A risk-score value 
      of 0.065 was found to be an optimal cut point for initial screening and selection 
      of high-risk individuals. A 1-h PG concentration >140 mg/dL in high-risk 
      individuals (whose risk score was >0.065) was the optimal cut point for 
      identification of subjects at increased risk. The two cut points had 77.8, 77.4, 
      and 44.8% (for the SAHS) and 75.8, 71.6, and 11.9% (for the Botnia Study) 
      sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, respectively, in the 
      SAHS and Botnia Study. CONCLUSIONS: A two-step model, based on the combination of 
      the SADPM and 1-h PG, is a useful tool for the identification of high-risk 
      Mexican-American and Caucasian individuals.
FAU - Abdul-Ghani, Muhammad A
AU  - Abdul-Ghani MA
AD  - Division of Diabetes, University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio, TX, 
      USA. abdulghani@uthscsa.edu
FAU - Abdul-Ghani, Tamam
AU  - Abdul-Ghani T
FAU - Stern, Michael P
AU  - Stern MP
FAU - Karavic, Jasmina
AU  - Karavic J
FAU - Tuomi, Tiinamaija
AU  - Tuomi T
FAU - Bo, Insoma
AU  - Bo I
FAU - Defronzo, Ralph A
AU  - Defronzo RA
FAU - Groop, Leif
AU  - Groop L
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20110725
PL  - United States
TA  - Diabetes Care
JT  - Diabetes care
JID - 7805975
RN  - 0 (Blood Glucose)
SB  - IM
MH  - Adult
MH  - Blood Glucose/metabolism
MH  - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*blood/*diagnosis
MH  - Female
MH  - Humans
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Multivariate Analysis
MH  - Risk Assessment/*methods
MH  - Risk Factors
PMC - PMC3161295
EDAT- 2011/07/27 06:00
MHDA- 2012/05/12 06:00
PMCR- 2012/09/01
CRDT- 2011/07/27 06:00
PHST- 2011/07/27 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2011/07/27 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2012/05/12 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2012/09/01 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - dc10-2201 [pii]
AID - 2201 [pii]
AID - 10.2337/dc10-2201 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Diabetes Care. 2011 Sep;34(9):2108-12. doi: 10.2337/dc10-2201. Epub 2011 Jul 25.