PMID- 23705638
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20150622
LR  - 20220129
IS  - 1471-2458 (Electronic)
IS  - 1471-2458 (Linking)
VI  - 13
DP  - 2013 May 25
TI  - Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria.
PG  - 507
LID - 10.1186/1471-2458-13-507 [doi]
AB  - BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major 
      public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is 
      instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims 
      to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003-2022 
      by applying a modelling approach to the country's own data. METHODS: Future 
      prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older 
      for the period 2003-2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov 
      model). RESULTS: According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is 
      projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The 
      projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women 
      (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people 
      younger than 55 years especially the 25-34 years age group. CONCLUSIONS: The 
      future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest 
      levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of 
      the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM.
FAU - Al Ali, Radwan
AU  - Al Ali R
AD  - Syrian Center for Tobacco Studies, Aleppo, Syria. radgali@gmail.com.
FAU - Mzayek, Fawaz
AU  - Mzayek F
FAU - Rastam, Samer
AU  - Rastam S
FAU - M Fouad, Fouad
AU  - M Fouad F
FAU - O'Flaherty, Martin
AU  - O'Flaherty M
FAU - Capewell, Simon
AU  - Capewell S
FAU - Maziak, Wasim
AU  - Maziak W
LA  - eng
GR  - G0900847/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20130525
PL  - England
TA  - BMC Public Health
JT  - BMC public health
JID - 100968562
SB  - IM
MH  - Adult
MH  - Age Factors
MH  - Aged
MH  - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*epidemiology/prevention & control
MH  - Ethnicity
MH  - Female
MH  - Forecasting
MH  - Health Promotion
MH  - Humans
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Prevalence
MH  - Preventive Health Services
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - Syria/epidemiology
PMC - PMC3673829
EDAT- 2013/05/28 06:00
MHDA- 2015/06/24 06:00
PMCR- 2013/05/25
CRDT- 2013/05/28 06:00
PHST- 2012/10/11 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2013/05/19 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2013/05/28 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2013/05/28 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2015/06/24 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2013/05/25 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 1471-2458-13-507 [pii]
AID - 10.1186/1471-2458-13-507 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - BMC Public Health. 2013 May 25;13:507. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-13-507.