PMID- 24216362
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20160423
LR  - 20181202
IS  - 0047-2425 (Print)
IS  - 0047-2425 (Linking)
VI  - 42
IP  - 4
DP  - 2013 Jul
TI  - Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator 
      model.
PG  - 1109-18
LID - 10.2134/jeq2012.0418 [doi]
AB  - Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. 
      Although it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently 
      uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss 
      models. In this study we assessed the effect of model input error on predictions 
      of annual P loss by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our objectives were 
      (i) to conduct a sensitivity analyses for all APLE input variables to determine 
      which variables the model is most sensitive to, (ii) to determine whether the 
      relatively easy-to-implement first-order approximation (FOA) method provides 
      accurate estimates of model prediction uncertainties by comparing results with 
      the more accurate Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, and (iii) to evaluate the 
      performance of the APLE model against measured P loss data when uncertainties in 
      model predictions and measured data are included. Our results showed that for low 
      to moderate uncertainties in APLE input variables, the FOA method yields 
      reasonable estimates of model prediction uncertainties, although for cases where 
      manure solid content is between 14 and 17%, the FOA method may not be as accurate 
      as the MCS method due to a discontinuity in the manure P loss component of APLE 
      at a manure solid content of 15%. The estimated uncertainties in APLE predictions 
      based on assumed errors in the input variables ranged from +/-2 to 64% of the 
      predicted value. Results from this study highlight the importance of including 
      reasonable estimates of model uncertainty when using models to predict P loss.
CI  - Copyright (c) by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, 
      and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.
FAU - Bolster, Carl H
AU  - Bolster CH
FAU - Vadas, Peter A
AU  - Vadas PA
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PL  - United States
TA  - J Environ Qual
JT  - Journal of environmental quality
JID - 0330666
RN  - 0 (Manure)
RN  - 27YLU75U4W (Phosphorus)
SB  - IM
MH  - Computer Simulation
MH  - Manure
MH  - Models, Theoretical
MH  - Monte Carlo Method
MH  - *Phosphorus
MH  - *Uncertainty
EDAT- 2013/11/13 06:00
MHDA- 2016/04/24 06:00
CRDT- 2013/11/13 06:00
PHST- 2013/11/13 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2013/11/13 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2016/04/24 06:00 [medline]
AID - 10.2134/jeq2012.0418 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - J Environ Qual. 2013 Jul;42(4):1109-18. doi: 10.2134/jeq2012.0418.