PMID- 25480675
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20151023
LR  - 20181202
IS  - 1471-2334 (Electronic)
IS  - 1471-2334 (Linking)
VI  - 14
DP  - 2014 Dec 6
TI  - Forecasting ESKAPE infections through a time-varying auto-adaptive algorithm 
      using laboratory-based surveillance data.
PG  - 634
LID - 10.1186/s12879-014-0634-9 [doi]
LID - 634
AB  - BACKGROUND: Mathematical or statistical tools are capable to provide a valid help 
      to improve surveillance systems for healthcare and non-healthcare-associated 
      bacterial infections. The aim of this work is to evaluate the time-varying 
      auto-adaptive (TVA) algorithm-based use of clinical microbiology laboratory 
      database to forecast medically important drug-resistant bacterial infections. 
      METHODS: Using TVA algorithm, six distinct time series were modelled, each one 
      representing the number of episodes per single 'ESKAPE' (E nterococcus faecium, S 
      taphylococcus aureus, K lebsiella pneumoniae, A cinetobacter baumannii, P 
      seudomonas aeruginosa and E nterobacter species) infecting pathogen, that had 
      occurred monthly between 2002 and 2011 calendar years at the Universita Cattolica 
      del Sacro Cuore general hospital. RESULTS: Monthly moving averaged numbers of 
      observed and forecasted ESKAPE infectious episodes were found to show a complete 
      overlapping of their respective smoothed time series curves. Overall good 
      forecast accuracy was observed, with percentages ranging from 82.14% for E. 
      faecium infections to 90.36% for S. aureus infections. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach 
      may regularly provide physicians with forecasted bacterial infection rates to 
      alert them about the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacterial species, especially 
      when clinical microbiological results of patients' specimens are delayed.
FAU - Ballarin, Antonio
AU  - Ballarin A
AD  - Arkegos International Study Centre, Rome, Italy. fsbba@libero.it.
AD  - Advanced Research Centre for Applied Science, Rome, Italy. fsbba@libero.it.
FAU - Posteraro, Brunella
AU  - Posteraro B
AD  - Institute of Public Health (Section of Hygiene), Universita Cattolica del Sacro 
      Cuore, Rome, Italy. bposteraro@rm.unicatt.it.
FAU - Demartis, Giuseppe
AU  - Demartis G
AD  - Arkegos International Study Centre, Rome, Italy. g.demartis@arkegos.org.
FAU - Gervasi, Simona
AU  - Gervasi S
AD  - Advanced Research Centre for Applied Science, Rome, Italy. siger21@libero.it.
FAU - Panzarella, Fabrizio
AU  - Panzarella F
AD  - Arkegos International Study Centre, Rome, Italy. f.panzarella@arkegos.org.
FAU - Torelli, Riccardo
AU  - Torelli R
AD  - Institute of Microbiology, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 00168 Largo F. 
      Vito 1, Rome, Italy. riccardo.torelli@rm.unicatt.it.
FAU - Paroni Sterbini, Francesco
AU  - Paroni Sterbini F
AD  - Institute of Microbiology, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 00168 Largo F. 
      Vito 1, Rome, Italy. francisco.paronisterbini@rm.unicatt.it.
FAU - Morandotti, Grazia
AU  - Morandotti G
AD  - Institute of Microbiology, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 00168 Largo F. 
      Vito 1, Rome, Italy. morandotti@rm.unicatt.it.
FAU - Posteraro, Patrizia
AU  - Posteraro P
AD  - Clinical Laboratory, Ospedale San Carlo, Rome, Italy. p.posteraro@idi.it.
FAU - Ricciardi, Walter
AU  - Ricciardi W
AD  - Institute of Public Health (Section of Hygiene), Universita Cattolica del Sacro 
      Cuore, Rome, Italy. wricciardi@rm.unicatt.it.
FAU - Gervasi Vidal, Kristian A
AU  - Gervasi Vidal KA
AD  - IMT Institute for Advanced Studies, Lucca, Italy. krisgerv@gmail.com.
FAU - Sanguinetti, Maurizio
AU  - Sanguinetti M
AD  - Institute of Microbiology, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 00168 Largo F. 
      Vito 1, Rome, Italy. msanguinetti@rm.unicatt.it.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20141206
PL  - England
TA  - BMC Infect Dis
JT  - BMC infectious diseases
JID - 100968551
RN  - 0 (Anti-Bacterial Agents)
SB  - IM
MH  - *Algorithms
MH  - Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use
MH  - Bacterial Infections/drug therapy/epidemiology/*microbiology
MH  - Drug Resistance, Bacterial
MH  - Female
MH  - Forecasting/methods
MH  - Gram-Negative Bacteria/*isolation & purification
MH  - Gram-Positive Bacteria/*isolation & purification
MH  - Humans
MH  - Italy/epidemiology
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Models, Statistical
MH  - Population Surveillance
MH  - Staphylococcus aureus
MH  - Time Factors
PMC - PMC4266976
EDAT- 2014/12/07 06:00
MHDA- 2015/10/24 06:00
PMCR- 2014/12/06
CRDT- 2014/12/07 06:00
PHST- 2014/02/17 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2014/11/13 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2014/12/07 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2014/12/07 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2015/10/24 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2014/12/06 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - s12879-014-0634-9 [pii]
AID - 634 [pii]
AID - 10.1186/s12879-014-0634-9 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - BMC Infect Dis. 2014 Dec 6;14:634. doi: 10.1186/s12879-014-0634-9.