PMID- 25618790 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20160914 LR - 20220409 IS - 1178-1661 (Electronic) IS - 1178-1653 (Print) IS - 1178-1653 (Linking) VI - 8 IP - 6 DP - 2015 Dec TI - The Predictive Value of Discrete Choice Experiments in Public Health: An Exploratory Application. PG - 521-9 LID - 10.1007/s40271-015-0115-2 [doi] AB - OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in public health by comparing stated preferences to actual behavior. METHODS: 780 Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients received a questionnaire, containing a DCE with five attributes related to T2DM patients' willingness to participate in a combined lifestyle intervention. Panel mixed-multinomial-logit models were used to estimate the stated preferences based on 206 completed DCE questionnaires. Actual participation status was retrieved for 54 respondents based on patients' medical records and a second questionnaire. Predicted and actual behavior data were compared at population level and at individual level. RESULTS: Based on the estimated utility function, 81.8% of all answers that individual respondents provided on the choice tasks were predicted correctly. The actual participation rate at the aggregated population level was minimally underestimated (70.1 vs. 75.9%). Of all individual choices, 74.1% were predicted correctly with a positive predictive value of 0.80 and a negative predictive value of 0.44. CONCLUSION: Stated preferences derived from a DCE can adequately predict actual behavior in a public health setting. FAU - Salampessy, Benjamin H AU - Salampessy BH AD - Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. FAU - Veldwijk, Jorien AU - Veldwijk J AD - Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. jorien.veldwijk@rivm.nl. AD - Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands. jorien.veldwijk@rivm.nl. FAU - Jantine Schuit, A AU - Jantine Schuit A AD - Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. AD - Department of Health Sciences, EMGO Institute for Health and Care Research, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. FAU - van den Brekel-Dijkstra, Karolien AU - van den Brekel-Dijkstra K AD - Leidsche Rijn Julius Health Care Centers, Utrecht, The Netherlands. FAU - Neslo, Rabin E J AU - Neslo RE AD - Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands. FAU - Ardine de Wit, G AU - Ardine de Wit G AD - Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. AD - Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands. FAU - Lambooij, Mattijs S AU - Lambooij MS AD - Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't PL - New Zealand TA - Patient JT - The patient JID - 101309314 SB - IM MH - Aged MH - *Choice Behavior MH - Costs and Cost Analysis MH - *Decision Support Techniques MH - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*psychology MH - Diet MH - Exercise MH - Female MH - Health Behavior MH - Humans MH - *Life Style MH - Logistic Models MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - Public Health/*methods MH - Socioeconomic Factors MH - Trauma Severity Indices PMC - PMC4662963 EDAT- 2015/01/27 06:00 MHDA- 2016/09/15 06:00 PMCR- 2015/01/25 CRDT- 2015/01/26 06:00 PHST- 2015/01/26 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2015/01/27 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2016/09/15 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2015/01/25 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 10.1007/s40271-015-0115-2 [pii] AID - 115 [pii] AID - 10.1007/s40271-015-0115-2 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Patient. 2015 Dec;8(6):521-9. doi: 10.1007/s40271-015-0115-2.