PMID- 25698216
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20151203
LR  - 20191210
IS  - 1520-5851 (Electronic)
IS  - 0013-936X (Print)
IS  - 0013-936X (Linking)
VI  - 49
IP  - 6
DP  - 2015 Mar 17
TI  - Increasing sample size in prospective birth cohorts: back-extrapolating prenatal 
      levels of persistent organic pollutants in newly enrolled children.
PG  - 3940-8
LID - 10.1021/acs.est.5b00322 [doi]
AB  - Study sample size in prospective birth cohorts of prenatal exposure to persistent 
      organic pollutants (POPs) is limited by costs and logistics of follow-up. 
      Increasing sample size at the time of health assessment would be beneficial if 
      predictive tools could reliably back-extrapolate prenatal levels in newly 
      enrolled children. We evaluated the performance of three approaches to 
      back-extrapolate prenatal levels of p,p'-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), 
      p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and four polybrominated diphenyl 
      ether (PBDE) congeners from maternal and/or child levels 9 years after delivery: 
      a pharmacokinetic model and predictive models using 
      deletion/substitution/addition or Super Learner algorithms. Model performance was 
      assessed using the root mean squared error (RMSE), R2, and slope and intercept of 
      the back-extrapolated versus measured levels. Super Learner outperformed the 
      other approaches with RMSEs of 0.10 to 0.31, R2s of 0.58 to 0.97, slopes of 0.42 
      to 0.93 and intercepts of 0.08 to 0.60. Typically, models performed better for 
      p,p'-DDT/E than PBDE congeners. The pharmacokinetic model performed well when 
      back-extrapolating prenatal levels from maternal levels for compounds with longer 
      half-lives like p,p'-DDE and BDE-153. Results demonstrate the ability to reliably 
      back-extrapolate prenatal POP levels from levels 9 years after delivery, with 
      Super Learner performing best based on our fit criteria.
FAU - Verner, Marc-Andre
AU  - Verner MA
AD  - daggerDepartment of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, 
      Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec H3T 1J4, Canada.
AD  - double daggerUniversite de Montreal Public Health Research Institute (IRSPUM), Universite de 
      Montreal, Montreal, Quebec H3T 1J4, Canada.
FAU - Gaspar, Fraser W
AU  - Gaspar FW
AD  -  section signCenter for Environmental Research and Children's Health (CERCH), School of 
      Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, United 
      States.
FAU - Chevrier, Jonathan
AU  - Chevrier J
AD  -  section signCenter for Environmental Research and Children's Health (CERCH), School of 
      Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, United 
      States.
AD  -  parallelDepartment of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, Faculty of 
      Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 0G4, Canada.
FAU - Gunier, Robert B
AU  - Gunier RB
AD  -  section signCenter for Environmental Research and Children's Health (CERCH), School of 
      Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, United 
      States.
FAU - Sjodin, Andreas
AU  - Sjodin A
AD  -  perpendicularDivision of Laboratory Sciences, National Center for Environmental Health, 
      Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 30329, United 
      States.
FAU - Bradman, Asa
AU  - Bradman A
AD  -  section signCenter for Environmental Research and Children's Health (CERCH), School of 
      Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, United 
      States.
FAU - Eskenazi, Brenda
AU  - Eskenazi B
AD  -  section signCenter for Environmental Research and Children's Health (CERCH), School of 
      Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, United 
      States.
LA  - eng
GR  - P01 ES0009605/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States
GR  - R01 ES015572/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States
GR  - OH007400/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States
GR  - ES017054/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States
GR  - ES015572/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States
GR  - R01 OH007400/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States
GR  - R01 ES017054/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States
GR  - P01 ES009605/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States
PT  - Comparative Study
PT  - Evaluation Study
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
PT  - Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
PT  - Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
DEP - 20150227
PL  - United States
TA  - Environ Sci Technol
JT  - Environmental science & technology
JID - 0213155
RN  - 0 (Halogenated Diphenyl Ethers)
RN  - 4M7FS82U08 (Dichlorodiphenyl Dichloroethylene)
RN  - CIW5S16655 (DDT)
SB  - IM
MH  - *Algorithms
MH  - Child
MH  - Cohort Studies
MH  - DDT/*pharmacokinetics
MH  - Dichlorodiphenyl Dichloroethylene/*pharmacokinetics
MH  - Female
MH  - Halogenated Diphenyl Ethers/*pharmacokinetics
MH  - Humans
MH  - Maternal-Fetal Exchange/*physiology
MH  - *Models, Biological
MH  - Predictive Value of Tests
MH  - Pregnancy
MH  - Prospective Studies
MH  - Research Design
MH  - *Sample Size
PMC - PMC4451835
MID - NIHMS683629
COIS- The authors have no competing interests. MAV and AB have served as consultants on 
      cases unrelated to the issues covered in this paper. AB has participated as a 
      member of the Science Advisory Board for The Organic Center, a non-profit 
      organization that provides information for scientific research about organic food 
      and farming.
EDAT- 2015/02/24 06:00
MHDA- 2015/12/15 06:00
PMCR- 2016/03/17
CRDT- 2015/02/21 06:00
PHST- 2015/02/21 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2015/02/24 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2015/12/15 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2016/03/17 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 10.1021/acs.est.5b00322 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Environ Sci Technol. 2015 Mar 17;49(6):3940-8. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5b00322. Epub 
      2015 Feb 27.