PMID- 25819936 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20171218 LR - 20201220 IS - 1573-2509 (Electronic) IS - 0920-9964 (Linking) VI - 173 IP - 3 DP - 2016 Jun TI - Prediction of outcome in the psychosis prodrome using neuroanatomical pattern classification. PG - 159-165 LID - S0920-9964(15)00134-6 [pii] LID - 10.1016/j.schres.2015.03.005 [doi] AB - To date, research into the biomarker-aided early recognition of psychosis has focused on predicting the transition likelihood of clinically defined individuals with different at-risk mental states (ARMS) based on structural (and functional) brain changes. However, it is currently unknown whether neuroimaging patterns could be identified to facilitate the individualized prediction of symptomatic and functional recovery. Therefore, we investigated whether cortical surface alterations analyzed by means of multivariate pattern recognition methods could enable the single-subject identification of functional outcomes in twenty-seven ARMS individuals. Subjects were dichotomized into 'good' vs. 'poor' outcome groups on average 4years after the baseline MRI scan using a Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) threshold of 70. Cortical surface-based pattern classification predicted good (N=14) vs. poor outcome status (N=13) at follow-up with an accuracy of 82% as determined by nested leave-one-cross-validation. Neuroanatomical prediction involved cortical area reductions in superior temporal, inferior frontal and inferior parietal areas and was not confounded by functional impairment at baseline, or antipsychotic medication and transition status over the follow-up period. The prediction model's decision scores were correlated with positive and general symptom scores in the ARMS group at follow-up, whereas negative symptoms were not linked to predicted poorer functional outcome. These findings suggest that poorer functional outcomes are associated with non-resolving attenuated psychosis and could be predicted at the single-subject level using multivariate neuroanatomical risk stratification methods. However, the generalizability and specificity of the suggested prediction model should be thoroughly investigated in future large-scale and cross-diagnostic MRI studies. CI - Copyright (c) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. FAU - Kambeitz-Ilankovic, Lana AU - Kambeitz-Ilankovic L AD - Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany. Electronic address: Lana.Kambeitz-Ilankovic@med.uni-muenchen.de. FAU - Meisenzahl, Eva M AU - Meisenzahl EM AD - Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany. FAU - Cabral, Carlos AU - Cabral C AD - Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany. FAU - von Saldern, Sebastian AU - von Saldern S AD - Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany. FAU - Kambeitz, Joseph AU - Kambeitz J AD - Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany. FAU - Falkai, Peter AU - Falkai P AD - Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany. FAU - Moller, Hans-Jurgen AU - Moller HJ AD - Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany. FAU - Reiser, Maximilian AU - Reiser M AD - Department of Radiology, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany. FAU - Koutsouleris, Nikolaos AU - Koutsouleris N AD - Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't DEP - 20150326 PL - Netherlands TA - Schizophr Res JT - Schizophrenia research JID - 8804207 SB - IM MH - Cerebral Cortex/*diagnostic imaging MH - Female MH - Follow-Up Studies MH - Humans MH - Image Interpretation, Computer-Assisted/*methods MH - Logistic Models MH - *Magnetic Resonance Imaging/methods MH - Male MH - Multivariate Analysis MH - Organ Size MH - Pattern Recognition, Automated/*methods MH - Prodromal Symptoms MH - Psychiatric Status Rating Scales MH - Psychotic Disorders/classification/*diagnostic imaging MH - Risk MH - Sensitivity and Specificity MH - Young Adult OTO - NOTNLM OT - At risk mental state OT - Functional outcome OT - Multivariate prediction OT - Neuroimaging biomarkers OT - Psychosis EDAT- 2015/03/31 06:00 MHDA- 2017/12/19 06:00 CRDT- 2015/03/31 06:00 PHST- 2014/11/06 00:00 [received] PHST- 2015/03/05 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2015/03/08 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2015/03/31 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2015/03/31 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2017/12/19 06:00 [medline] AID - S0920-9964(15)00134-6 [pii] AID - 10.1016/j.schres.2015.03.005 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Schizophr Res. 2016 Jun;173(3):159-165. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2015.03.005. Epub 2015 Mar 26.