PMID- 26028983
OWN - NLM
STAT- PubMed-not-MEDLINE
LR  - 20201001
IS  - 1180-4009 (Print)
IS  - 1099-095X (Electronic)
IS  - 1099-095X (Linking)
VI  - 26
IP  - 4
DP  - 2015 Jun
TI  - Exploratory ensemble designs for environmental models using k-extended Latin 
      Hypercubes.
PG  - 268-283
AB  - In this paper we present a novel, flexible, and multi-purpose class of designs 
      for initial exploration of the parameter spaces of computer models, such as those 
      used to study many features of the environment. The idea applies existing 
      technology aimed at expanding a Latin Hypercube (LHC) in order to generate 
      initial LHC designs that are composed of many smaller LHCs. The resulting design 
      and its component parts are designed so that each is approximately orthogonal and 
      maximises a measure of coverage of the parameter space. Designs of the type 
      advocated for in this paper are particularly useful when we want to 
      simultaneously quantify parametric uncertainty and any uncertainty due to the 
      initial conditions, boundary conditions, or forcing functions required to run the 
      model. This makes the class of designs particularly suited to environmental 
      models, such as climate models that contain all of these features. The proposed 
      designs are particularly suited to initial exploratory ensembles whose goal is to 
      guide the design of further ensembles aimed at, for example, calibrating the 
      model. We introduce a new emulator diagnostic that exploits the structure of the 
      advocated ensemble designs and allows for the assessment of structural weaknesses 
      in the statistical modelling. We provide illustrations of the method through a 
      simple example and describe a 400 member ensemble of the Nucleus for European 
      Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model designed using the method. We build an 
      emulator for NEMO using the created design to illustrate the use of our emulator 
      diagnostic test. (c) 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & 
      Sons Ltd.
FAU - Williamson, D
AU  - Williamson D
AD  - College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter 
      Exeter, U.K.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20150324
PL  - England
TA  - Environmetrics
JT  - Environmetrics
JID - 100968246
PMC - PMC4440391
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - climate models
OT  - diagnostics
OT  - emulation
OT  - initial condition uncertainty
OT  - uncertainty quantification
EDAT- 2015/06/02 06:00
MHDA- 2015/06/02 06:01
PMCR- 2015/05/21
CRDT- 2015/06/02 06:00
PHST- 2014/05/01 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2015/02/09 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2015/02/10 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2015/06/02 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2015/06/02 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2015/06/02 06:01 [medline]
PHST- 2015/05/21 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 10.1002/env.2335 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Environmetrics. 2015 Jun;26(4):268-283. doi: 10.1002/env.2335. Epub 2015 Mar 24.