PMID- 26385021 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20170501 LR - 20181113 IS - 1464-410X (Electronic) IS - 1464-4096 (Print) IS - 1464-4096 (Linking) VI - 118 IP - 4 DP - 2016 Oct TI - Variation in serum prostate-specific antigen levels in men with prostate cancer managed with active surveillance. PG - 535-40 LID - 10.1111/bju.13328 [doi] AB - OBJECTIVE: To describe fluctuations in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels in men managed with active surveillance (AS) to determine if a single PSA increase is a consistent measure to use to trigger intervention. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We evaluated data on 541 patients undergoing AS between 1995 and 2011. PSA variation was described by studying the Kaplan-Meier probability of patients' PSA levels reaching 4 or 7 ng/mL, falling below those thresholds, and then rising to those thresholds again. We also examined PSA variation by calculating the Kaplan-Meier probability of a PSA change followed by an equal or greater change in the opposite direction. RESULTS: We analysed data on 541 patients undergoing AS with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) of 8 (6-12) PSA measurements and undergoing AS for a median (IQR) of 4 (2-6) years. The 5-year estimate of the probability of reaching a threshold PSA of 7 ng/mL was 40% (95% confidence interval [CI] 35-46%) and the 5-year estimate of subsequently falling below this threshold was 90% (95% CI 82-95%). The 5-year estimate of a PSA direction change was 95% (95% CI 93-97%) overall and 56% (95% CI 51-61%) for PSA direction changes of >/=1 ng/mL. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a high probability of variability in PSA levels for patients on AS. The probability of changes in PSA, defined by an increase to the specified thresholds or a rise >1 ng/mL within 6 months and subsequent decrease of equal or greater value on a subsequent measurement, increases over time; therefore, a single change in PSA level is not a reliable endpoint for patients on AS. CI - (c) 2015 The Authors BJU International (c) 2015 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. FAU - Ehdaie, Behfar AU - Ehdaie B AD - Urology Service, Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers, New York, NY, USA. ehdaieb@mskcc.org. AD - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA. ehdaieb@mskcc.org. FAU - Poon, Bing Ying AU - Poon BY AD - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA. FAU - Sjoberg, Daniel D AU - Sjoberg DD AD - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA. FAU - Recabal, Pedro AU - Recabal P AD - Urology Service, Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers, New York, NY, USA. AD - Urology Service, Fundacion Arturo Lopez Perez, Santiago, Chile. FAU - Laudone, Vincent AU - Laudone V AD - Urology Service, Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers, New York, NY, USA. FAU - Touijer, Karim AU - Touijer K AD - Urology Service, Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers, New York, NY, USA. FAU - Eastham, James AU - Eastham J AD - Urology Service, Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers, New York, NY, USA. FAU - Scardino, Peter T AU - Scardino PT AD - Urology Service, Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers, New York, NY, USA. LA - eng GR - P30 CA008748/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States PT - Journal Article PT - Observational Study DEP - 20151026 PL - England TA - BJU Int JT - BJU international JID - 100886721 RN - EC 3.4.21.77 (Prostate-Specific Antigen) SB - IM MH - Aged MH - Humans MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - Prostate-Specific Antigen/*blood MH - Prostatic Neoplasms/*blood/*therapy MH - Retrospective Studies MH - *Watchful Waiting PMC - PMC5523832 MID - NIHMS863478 OTO - NOTNLM OT - PSA OT - active surveillance OT - prostate cancer OT - prostate specific antigen EDAT- 2015/09/20 06:00 MHDA- 2017/05/02 06:00 PMCR- 2017/10/01 CRDT- 2015/09/20 06:00 PHST- 2015/09/20 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2015/09/20 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2017/05/02 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2017/10/01 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 10.1111/bju.13328 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - BJU Int. 2016 Oct;118(4):535-40. doi: 10.1111/bju.13328. Epub 2015 Oct 26.