PMID- 26407788
OWN - NLM
STAT- PubMed-not-MEDLINE
DCOM- 20150926
LR  - 20240520
IS  - 1723-8617 (Print)
IS  - 2051-5545 (Electronic)
IS  - 1723-8617 (Linking)
VI  - 14
IP  - 3
DP  - 2015 Oct
TI  - At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of 
      psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction.
PG  - 322-32
LID - 10.1002/wps.20250 [doi]
AB  - An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is 
      a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric 
      interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted 
      a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine 
      referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR 
      psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and 
      CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- 
      subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), 
      summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood 
      ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven 
      independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, 
      predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk 
      services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 
      95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, 
      suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. 
      Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no 
      effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality 
      assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram 
      indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking 
      population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, 
      these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as 
      clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk 
      services worldwide.
CI  - (c) 2015 World Psychiatric Association.
FAU - Fusar-Poli, Paolo
AU  - Fusar-Poli P
AD  - King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry, London, UK.
AD  - OASIS Service, South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
FAU - Cappucciati, Marco
AU  - Cappucciati M
AD  - King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry, London, UK.
FAU - Rutigliano, Grazia
AU  - Rutigliano G
AD  - King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry, London, UK.
FAU - Schultze-Lutter, Frauke
AU  - Schultze-Lutter F
AD  - University Hospital of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, 
      University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
FAU - Bonoldi, Ilaria
AU  - Bonoldi I
AD  - King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry, London, UK.
FAU - Borgwardt, Stefan
AU  - Borgwardt S
AD  - University of Basel Psychiatric Clinics, Basel, Switzerland.
FAU - Riecher-Rossler, Anita
AU  - Riecher-Rossler A
AD  - University of Basel Psychiatric Clinics, Basel, Switzerland.
FAU - Addington, Jean
AU  - Addington J
AD  - Hotchkiss Brain Institute, Department of Psychiatry, University of Calgary, 
      Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
FAU - Perkins, Diana
AU  - Perkins D
AD  - Department of Psychiatry, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
FAU - Woods, Scott W
AU  - Woods SW
AD  - Department of Psychiatry, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
FAU - McGlashan, Thomas H
AU  - McGlashan TH
AD  - Department of Psychiatry, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
FAU - Lee, Jimmy
AU  - Lee J
AD  - Department of General Psychiatry, Institute of Mental Health, Singapore, 
      Singapore.
FAU - Klosterkotter, Joachim
AU  - Klosterkotter J
AD  - Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University of Cologne, Cologne, 
      Germany.
FAU - Yung, Alison R
AU  - Yung AR
AD  - Institute of Brain, Behaviour and Mental Health, University of Manchester, 
      Manchester, UK.
FAU - McGuire, Philip
AU  - McGuire P
AD  - King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry, London, UK.
AD  - OASIS Service, South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
LA  - eng
GR  - U01 MH066069/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States
GR  - U01 MH082022/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States
PT  - Journal Article
PL  - Italy
TA  - World Psychiatry
JT  - World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)
JID - 101189643
PMC - PMC4592655
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Psychosis
OT  - high risk services
OT  - prevention
OT  - prognostic accuracy
OT  - psychometric interviews
EDAT- 2015/09/27 06:00
MHDA- 2015/09/27 06:01
PMCR- 2015/10/01
CRDT- 2015/09/27 06:00
PHST- 2015/09/27 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2015/09/27 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2015/09/27 06:01 [medline]
PHST- 2015/10/01 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 10.1002/wps.20250 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - World Psychiatry. 2015 Oct;14(3):322-32. doi: 10.1002/wps.20250.