PMID- 26505134
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20160617
LR  - 20151110
IS  - 1878-5832 (Electronic)
IS  - 1359-6446 (Linking)
VI  - 20
IP  - 11
DP  - 2015 Nov
TI  - Lost in space: design of experiments and scientific exploration in a Hogarth 
      Universe.
PG  - 1365-71
LID - S1359-6446(15)00371-2 [pii]
LID - 10.1016/j.drudis.2015.09.015 [doi]
AB  - A Hogarth, or 'wicked', universe is an irregular environment generating data to 
      support erroneous beliefs. Here, we argue that development scientists often work 
      in such a universe. We demonstrate that exploring these multidimensional spaces 
      using small experiments guided by scientific intuition alone, gives rise to an 
      illusion of validity and a misplaced confidence in that scientific intuition. By 
      contrast, design of experiments (DOE) permits the efficient mapping of such 
      complex, multidimensional spaces. We describe simulation tools that enable 
      research scientists to explore these spaces in relative safety.
CI  - Copyright (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
FAU - Lendrem, Dennis W
AU  - Lendrem DW
AD  - Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK. Electronic 
      address: dennis.lendrem@newcastle.ac.uk.
FAU - Lendrem, B Clare
AU  - Lendrem BC
AD  - Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
FAU - Woods, David
AU  - Woods D
AD  - Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, 
      Southampton, UK.
FAU - Rowland-Jones, Ruth
AU  - Rowland-Jones R
AD  - Centre for Bioengineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
FAU - Burke, Matthew
AU  - Burke M
AD  - GlaxoSmithKline, King of Prussia, PA, USA.
FAU - Chatfield, Marion
AU  - Chatfield M
AD  - Centre for Medicines Research, GlaxoSmithKline, Stevenage, UK.
FAU - Isaacs, John D
AU  - Isaacs JD
AD  - Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
FAU - Owen, Martin R
AU  - Owen MR
AD  - Centre for Medicines Research, GlaxoSmithKline, Stevenage, UK.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
PT  - Review
DEP - 20151023
PL  - England
TA  - Drug Discov Today
JT  - Drug discovery today
JID - 9604391
SB  - IM
MH  - *Computer Simulation
MH  - Environment
MH  - Humans
MH  - *Research Design
MH  - Science/*methods
EDAT- 2015/10/28 06:00
MHDA- 2016/06/18 06:00
CRDT- 2015/10/28 06:00
PHST- 2015/05/05 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2015/09/14 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2015/09/29 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2015/10/28 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2015/10/28 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2016/06/18 06:00 [medline]
AID - S1359-6446(15)00371-2 [pii]
AID - 10.1016/j.drudis.2015.09.015 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Drug Discov Today. 2015 Nov;20(11):1365-71. doi: 10.1016/j.drudis.2015.09.015. 
      Epub 2015 Oct 23.