PMID- 26705487 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20171012 LR - 20220321 IS - 2047-2412 (Electronic) IS - 2047-2404 (Print) IS - 2047-2404 (Linking) VI - 17 IP - 10 DP - 2016 Oct TI - Creation of mortality risk charts using 123I meta-iodobenzylguanidine heart-to-mediastinum ratio in patients with heart failure: 2- and 5-year risk models. PG - 1138-45 LID - 10.1093/ehjci/jev322 [doi] AB - AIMS: (123)I meta-iodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging has been extensively used for prognostication in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The purpose of this study was to create mortality risk charts for short-term (2 years) and long-term (5 years) prediction of cardiac mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a pooled database of 1322 CHF patients, multivariate analysis, including (123)I-MIBG late heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and clinical factors, was performed to determine optimal variables for the prediction of 2- and 5-year mortality risk using subsets of the patients (n = 1280 and 933, respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to create risk charts. Cardiac mortality was 10 and 22% for the sub-population of 2- and 5-year analyses. A four-parameter multivariate logistic regression model including age, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, LVEF, and HMR was used. Annualized mortality rate was <1% in patients with NYHA Class I-II and HMR >/= 2.0, irrespective of age and LVEF. In patients with NYHA Class III-IV, mortality rate was 4-6 times higher for HMR < 1.40 compared with HMR >/= 2.0 in all LVEF classes. Among the subset of patients with b-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) results (n = 491 and 359 for 2- and 5-year models, respectively), the 5-year model showed incremental value of HMR in addition to BNP. CONCLUSION: Both 2- and 5-year risk prediction models with (123)I-MIBG HMR can be used to identify low-risk as well as high-risk patients, which can be effective for further risk stratification of CHF patients even when BNP is available. CI - (c) The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. FAU - Nakajima, Kenichi AU - Nakajima K AD - Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa University Hospital, 13-1 Takara-machi, Kanazawa 920-8641, Japan nakajima@med.kanazawa-u.ac.jp. FAU - Nakata, Tomoaki AU - Nakata T AD - Hakodate Goryoukaku Hospital, Hakodate-City, Japan. FAU - Matsuo, Shinro AU - Matsuo S AD - Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa University Hospital, 13-1 Takara-machi, Kanazawa 920-8641, Japan. FAU - Jacobson, Arnold F AU - Jacobson AF AD - Diagram Consulting, Kihei, HI, USA. LA - eng PT - Comparative Study PT - Journal Article DEP - 20151224 PL - England TA - Eur Heart J Cardiovasc Imaging JT - European heart journal. Cardiovascular Imaging JID - 101573788 RN - 35MRW7B4AD (3-Iodobenzylguanidine) SB - IM MH - *3-Iodobenzylguanidine MH - Aged MH - *Cause of Death MH - Chronic Disease MH - Cohort Studies MH - Databases, Factual MH - Female MH - Heart Failure/*diagnostic imaging/*mortality MH - Humans MH - Logistic Models MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - Multivariate Analysis MH - Positron-Emission Tomography/*methods MH - Predictive Value of Tests MH - Proportional Hazards Models MH - ROC Curve MH - Retrospective Studies MH - Risk Assessment MH - Survival Analysis MH - Time Factors PMC - PMC5031228 OTO - NOTNLM OT - 123I meta-iodobenzylguanidine OT - cardiac death OT - chronic heart failure OT - prediction model OT - prognosis OT - risk chart EDAT- 2015/12/26 06:00 MHDA- 2017/10/13 06:00 PMCR- 2015/12/24 CRDT- 2015/12/26 06:00 PHST- 2015/10/01 00:00 [received] PHST- 2014/11/13 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2015/12/26 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2015/12/26 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2017/10/13 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2015/12/24 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - jev322 [pii] AID - 10.1093/ehjci/jev322 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Eur Heart J Cardiovasc Imaging. 2016 Oct;17(10):1138-45. doi: 10.1093/ehjci/jev322. Epub 2015 Dec 24.