PMID- 26792214 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20160927 LR - 20220408 IS - 2044-6055 (Electronic) IS - 2044-6055 (Linking) VI - 6 IP - 1 DP - 2016 Jan 20 TI - Anthropometric markers and their association with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: which marker is best for prediction? Pooled analysis of four German population-based cohort studies and comparison with a nationwide cohort study. PG - e009266 LID - 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009266 [doi] LID - e009266 AB - OBJECTIVE: To compare the association between different anthropometric measurements and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to assess their predictive ability in different regions of Germany. METHODS: Data of 10,258 participants from 4 prospective population-based cohorts were pooled to assess the association of body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip-ratio (WHR) and waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR) with incident T2DM by calculating HRs of the crude, adjusted and standardised markers, as well as providing receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. Differences between HRs and ROCs for the different anthropometric markers were calculated to compare their predictive ability. In addition, data of 3105 participants from the nationwide survey were analysed separately using the same methods to provide a nationally representative comparison. RESULTS: Strong associations were found for each anthropometric marker and incidence of T2DM. Among the standardised anthropometric measures, we found the strongest effect on incident T2DM for WC and WHtR in the pooled sample (HR for 1 SD difference in WC 1.97, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.22, HR for WHtR 1.93, 95% CI 1.71 to 2.17 in women) and in female DEGS participants (HR for WC 2.24, 95% CI 1.91 to 2.63, HR for WHtR 2.10, 95% CI 1.81 to 2.44), whereas the strongest association in men was found for WHR among DEGS participants (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.89 to 2.78). ROC analysis showed WHtR to be the strongest predictor for incident T2DM. Differences in HR and ROCs between the different markers confirmed WC and WHtR to be the best predictors of incident T2DM. Findings were consistent across study regions and age groups (<65 vs >/= 65 years). CONCLUSIONS: We found stronger associations between anthropometric markers that reflect abdominal obesity (ie, WC and WHtR) and incident T2DM than for BMI and weight. The use of these measurements in risk prediction should be encouraged. CI - Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/ FAU - Hartwig, Saskia AU - Hartwig S AD - Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munchen-Neuherberg, Germany. FAU - Kluttig, Alexander AU - Kluttig A AD - Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munchen-Neuherberg, Germany. FAU - Tiller, Daniel AU - Tiller D AD - Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany. FAU - Fricke, Julia AU - Fricke J AD - Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany Institute for Social Medicine, Epidemiology and Health Economics, Charite-Universitatsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany. FAU - Muller, Grit AU - Muller G AD - Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Muenster, Muenster, Germany. FAU - Schipf, Sabine AU - Schipf S AD - German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munchen-Neuherberg, Germany Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. FAU - Volzke, Henry AU - Volzke H AD - German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munchen-Neuherberg, Germany Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. FAU - Schunk, Michaela AU - Schunk M AD - Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, Neuherberg, Germany. FAU - Meisinger, Christa AU - Meisinger C AD - German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munchen-Neuherberg, Germany Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, Neuherberg, Germany. FAU - Schienkiewitz, Anja AU - Schienkiewitz A AD - Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany. FAU - Heidemann, Christin AU - Heidemann C AD - Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany. FAU - Moebus, Susanne AU - Moebus S AD - Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry, and Epidemiology, University Hospital of Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany. FAU - Pechlivanis, Sonali AU - Pechlivanis S AD - Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry, and Epidemiology, University Hospital of Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany. FAU - Werdan, Karl AU - Werdan K AD - Department of Medicine III, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany. FAU - Kuss, Oliver AU - Kuss O AD - German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munchen-Neuherberg, Germany Institute of Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich-Heine-University, Dusseldorf, Germany. FAU - Tamayo, Teresa AU - Tamayo T AD - Institute of Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich-Heine-University, Dusseldorf, Germany. FAU - Haerting, Johannes AU - Haerting J AD - Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany. FAU - Greiser, Karin Halina AU - Greiser KH AD - Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munchen-Neuherberg, Germany Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't DEP - 20160120 PL - England TA - BMJ Open JT - BMJ open JID - 101552874 SB - IM MH - *Anthropometry MH - Body Mass Index MH - Body Weight MH - Cohort Studies MH - Comorbidity MH - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*epidemiology MH - Female MH - Germany/epidemiology MH - Humans MH - Incidence MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - Obesity, Abdominal/epidemiology MH - Waist Circumference MH - Waist-Height Ratio MH - Waist-Hip Ratio PMC - PMC4735317 OTO - NOTNLM OT - EPIDEMIOLOGY OT - PUBLIC HEALTH EDAT- 2016/01/23 06:00 MHDA- 2016/09/28 06:00 PMCR- 2016/01/20 CRDT- 2016/01/22 06:00 PHST- 2016/01/22 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2016/01/23 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2016/09/28 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2016/01/20 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - bmjopen-2015-009266 [pii] AID - 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009266 [doi] PST - epublish SO - BMJ Open. 2016 Jan 20;6(1):e009266. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009266.