PMID- 26792832
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20170110
LR  - 20231220
IS  - 1468-960X (Electronic)
IS  - 1362-0347 (Print)
IS  - 1362-0347 (Linking)
VI  - 19
IP  - 1
DP  - 2016 Feb
TI  - Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical 
      guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning.
PG  - 10-5
LID - 10.1136/eb-2015-102295 [doi]
AB  - Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a 
      mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR 
      instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a 
      probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment 
      is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning 
      makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly 
      practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with 
      probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative 
      incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates 
      of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity 
      in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive 
      values, Bayes' theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life 
      applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. 
      Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a 
      prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of 
      psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR 
      patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating 
      or withholding treatment.
CI  - Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not 
      already granted under a licence) please go to 
      http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
FAU - Fusar-Poli, P
AU  - Fusar-Poli P
AD  - King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, 
      London, UK OASIS service, South London and the Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, 
      London, UK.
FAU - Schultze-Lutter, F
AU  - Schultze-Lutter F
AD  - University Hospital of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, 
      University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Review
PL  - England
TA  - Evid Based Ment Health
JT  - Evidence-based mental health
JID - 100883413
SB  - IM
MH  - Humans
MH  - Kaplan-Meier Estimate
MH  - Probability
MH  - Prognosis
MH  - Psychotic Disorders/*diagnosis
MH  - Risk Assessment
MH  - Risk Factors
PMC - PMC10699348
EDAT- 2016/01/23 06:00
MHDA- 2017/01/11 06:00
PMCR- 2016/02/01
CRDT- 2016/01/22 06:00
PHST- 2016/01/22 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2016/01/23 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2017/01/11 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2016/02/01 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - eb-2015-102295 [pii]
AID - ebmental-2015-102295 [pii]
AID - 10.1136/eb-2015-102295 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Evid Based Ment Health. 2016 Feb;19(1):10-5. doi: 10.1136/eb-2015-102295.