PMID- 27005531
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20160816
LR  - 20181202
IS  - 0254-6450 (Print)
IS  - 0254-6450 (Linking)
VI  - 37
IP  - 3
DP  - 2016 Mar
TI  - [Role of novel risk factors in predicting risk of ischemic cardiovascular 
      diseases in middle aged men in twenty years in Shanghai].
PG  - 335-8
LID - 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.03.008 [doi]
AB  - OBJECTIVE: To examine the existing Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and Chinese Risk 
      Score (CRS) in predicting the development of ischemic cardiovascular diseases 
      (ICVD), and determine potential added value of novel risk factors. METHODS: The 
      China Multi-Provincial Cohort Study (CMCS) was a population-based prospective 
      cohort study in 11 provinces of China. An annual follow up was conducted in 840 
      men aged 35 to 64 years in Shanghai cohort, who were without coronary heart 
      disease and stroke at baseline examination in 1992, to collect the incidence data 
      of ICVD events (coronary death, myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke). The 
      detection of novel risk factors were conducted for the cohort in 2007. The basic 
      Framingham and Chinese prediction scores power were assessed by using C-statistic 
      of ICVD events associated with risk scores, then the novel risk factors were 
      evaluated by adding them independently to the basic Chinese models. The area 
      under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated 
      discrimination improvement(IDI) were calculated to determine if each of the novel 
      risk factors improved risk prediction. RESULTS: By the end of December 2014, 24 
      cases of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction or/and coronary death), 45 
      cases of ischemic stroke had occurred in 840 subjects in Shanghai cohort with a 
      follow-up of 22.3 years averagely. Both the FRS and CRS had predicting power for 
      ICVD, the AUCs were 0.6576 (95%CI: 0.5942-0.7240) and 0.7265 (95%CI: 
      0.6643-0.7887), respectively. The incremental AUC was 0.0689 (95%CI: 
      0.0196-0.1171) (P=0.006). None of the novel risk factors significantly improved 
      the AUC. High-sensitive-CRP (hs-CRP) was the only novel risk factor resulting in 
      a significant increase of NRI. CRS in 2007 significantly improved the IDI, but 
      net changes were small. CONCLUSIONS: CRS had high power in the 20-year risk 
      prediction for ICVD in middle-aged men in Shanghai. The inclusion of hs-CRP could 
      make some improvement in risk prediction, but is unlikely to be meaningful when 
      reclassification or new discrimination strategy are made which can change the 
      clinical risk.
FAU - Jin, Xuejuan
AU  - Jin X
AD  - Shanghai Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan 
      University, Shanghai 200032, China.
FAU - Zhou, Jingmin
AU  - Zhou J
FAU - Zhou, Jun
AU  - Zhou J
FAU - Pan, Xinwei
AU  - Pan X
FAU - Chen, Haozhu
AU  - Chen H
FAU - Ge, Junbo
AU  - Ge J
LA  - chi
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
PL  - China
TA  - Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi
JT  - Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi
JID - 8208604
SB  - IM
MH  - Adult
MH  - Area Under Curve
MH  - Cardiovascular Diseases/*epidemiology
MH  - China/epidemiology
MH  - Cohort Studies
MH  - Coronary Artery Disease/epidemiology
MH  - Humans
MH  - Incidence
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Myocardial Infarction/epidemiology
MH  - Prospective Studies
MH  - Risk Assessment/methods
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - Stroke/epidemiology
EDAT- 2016/03/24 06:00
MHDA- 2016/08/17 06:00
CRDT- 2016/03/24 06:00
PHST- 2016/03/24 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2016/03/24 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2016/08/17 06:00 [medline]
AID - 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.03.008 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2016 Mar;37(3):335-8. doi: 
      10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.03.008.