PMID- 27122623 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20170512 LR - 20181202 IS - 1941-2479 (Electronic) IS - 1010-5395 (Linking) VI - 28 IP - 6 DP - 2016 Sep TI - Diabetes and Obesity Trends in Tonga Over 40 Years. PG - 475-85 LID - 10.1177/1010539516645156 [doi] AB - Disparate population surveys of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have been conducted in Tonga for 4 decades. This study standardizes these surveys to enable assessment of T2DM and obesity trends in Tongans aged 25 to 64 years over 1973-2012, and projects T2DM prevalence to 2020 based on demographic and population weight changes. Eight surveys were standardized to the nearest census to produce nationally representative estimates. Linear period trends and prevalence projections to 2020 were produced using random-effects meta-regression. Over 1973-2012, T2DM prevalence increased from 5.2% to 19.0% (1.9%/5 years) and obesity prevalence from 56.0% to 70.2% (2.7%/5 years). T2DM prevalence period projection to 2020 is 22.3%. Based on modeling using body mass index, T2DM prevalence in 2020 could have been 12.7% and 16.8% in 2020 had mean population weight been 1 to 4 kg lower than 2012 levels. CI - (c) 2016 APJPH. FAU - Lin, Sophia AU - Lin S AD - University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. FAU - Hufanga, Sione AU - Hufanga S AD - Ministry of Health, Nuku'alofa, Tonga. FAU - Linhart, Christine AU - Linhart C AD - University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. FAU - Morrell, Stephen AU - Morrell S AD - University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. FAU - Taylor, Richard AU - Taylor R AD - University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia r.taylor@unsw.edu.au. FAU - Magliano, Dianna J AU - Magliano DJ AD - Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. FAU - Zimmet, Paul AU - Zimmet P AD - Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Review DEP - 20160427 PL - China TA - Asia Pac J Public Health JT - Asia-Pacific journal of public health JID - 8708538 SB - IM MH - Adult MH - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*epidemiology MH - Health Surveys MH - Humans MH - Middle Aged MH - Obesity/*epidemiology MH - Prevalence MH - Tonga/epidemiology OTO - NOTNLM OT - Pacific Islands OT - Tonga OT - diabetes OT - epidemiology OT - global health OT - noncommunicable diseases OT - obesity OT - population health OT - population studies EDAT- 2016/04/29 06:00 MHDA- 2017/05/13 06:00 CRDT- 2016/04/29 06:00 PHST- 2016/04/29 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2016/04/29 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2017/05/13 06:00 [medline] AID - 1010539516645156 [pii] AID - 10.1177/1010539516645156 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Asia Pac J Public Health. 2016 Sep;28(6):475-85. doi: 10.1177/1010539516645156. Epub 2016 Apr 27.