PMID- 27307784 OWN - NLM STAT- PubMed-not-MEDLINE DCOM- 20160616 LR - 20201001 IS - 1742-7622 (Print) IS - 1742-7622 (Electronic) IS - 1742-7622 (Linking) VI - 13 DP - 2016 TI - Assessing delivery practices of mothers over time and over space in Uganda, 2003-2012. PG - 9 LID - 10.1186/s12982-016-0049-8 [doi] LID - 9 AB - BACKGROUND: It is well known that safe delivery in a health facility reduces the risks of maternal and infant mortality resulting from perinatal complications. What is less understood are the factors associated with safe delivery practices. We investigate factors influencing health facility delivery practices while adjusting for multiple other factors simultaneously, spatial heterogeneity, and trends over time. METHODS: We fitted a logistic regression model to Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) data from Uganda in a framework that considered individual-level covariates, geographical features, and variations over five time points. We accounted for all two-covariate interactions and all three-covariate interactions for which two of the covariates already had a significant interaction, were able to quantify uncertainty in outputs using computationally intensive cluster bootstrap methods, and displayed outputs using a geographical information system. Finally, we investigated what information could be predicted about districts at future time-points, before the next LQAS survey is carried out. To do this, we applied the model to project a confidence interval for the district level coverage of health facility delivery at future time points, by using the lower and upper end values of known demographics to construct a confidence range for the prediction and define priority groups. RESULTS: We show that ease of access, maternal age and education are strongly associated with delivery in a health facility; after accounting for this, there remains a significant trend towards greater uptake over time. We use this model together with known demographics to formulate a nascent early warning system that identifies candidate districts expected to have low prevalence of facility-based delivery in the immediate future. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the hypothesis that increased development, particularly related to education and access to health facilities, will act to increase facility-based deliveries, a factor associated with reducing perinatal associated mortality. We provide a statistical method for using inexpensive and routinely collected monitoring and evaluation data to answer complex epidemiology and public health questions in a resource-poor setting. We produced a model based on this data that explained the spatial distribution of facility-based delivery in Uganda. Finally, we used this model to make a prediction about the future priority of districts that was validated by monitoring and evaluation data collected in the next year. FAU - Sprague, Daniel A AU - Sprague DA AD - Centre for Complexity Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL UK. AD - Management Sciences for Health, USAID STAR-E project, Kampala, Uganda. FAU - Jeffery, Caroline AU - Jeffery C AD - METRe Group, Department of International Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA UK. AD - Management Sciences for Health, USAID STAR-E project, Kampala, Uganda. FAU - Crossland, Nadine AU - Crossland N AD - METRe Group, Department of International Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA UK. AD - Management Sciences for Health, USAID STAR-E project, Kampala, Uganda. FAU - House, Thomas AU - House T AD - School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL UK. FAU - Roberts, Gareth O AU - Roberts GO AD - Statistics Department, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL UK. FAU - Vargas, William AU - Vargas W AD - METRe Group, Department of International Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA UK. AD - Management Sciences for Health, Kampala, Uganda. FAU - Ouma, Joseph AU - Ouma J AD - Management Sciences for Health, Kampala, Uganda. AD - Management Sciences for Health, USAID STAR-E project, Kampala, Uganda. FAU - Lwanga, Stephen K AU - Lwanga SK AD - Management Sciences for Health, Kampala, Uganda. AD - Management Sciences for Health, USAID STAR-E project, Kampala, Uganda. FAU - Valadez, Joseph J AU - Valadez JJ AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-6575-6592 AD - METRe Group, Department of International Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA UK. AD - Management Sciences for Health, USAID STAR-E project, Kampala, Uganda. LA - eng PT - Journal Article DEP - 20160614 PL - England TA - Emerg Themes Epidemiol JT - Emerging themes in epidemiology JID - 101232986 PMC - PMC4908697 OTO - NOTNLM OT - Early warning system OT - Ease of access OT - Facility-based delivery OT - LQAS OT - Spatial modelling OT - Survey OT - Uganda EDAT- 2016/06/17 06:00 MHDA- 2016/06/17 06:01 PMCR- 2016/06/14 CRDT- 2016/06/17 06:00 PHST- 2015/07/14 00:00 [received] PHST- 2016/05/12 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2016/06/17 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2016/06/17 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2016/06/17 06:01 [medline] PHST- 2016/06/14 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 49 [pii] AID - 10.1186/s12982-016-0049-8 [doi] PST - epublish SO - Emerg Themes Epidemiol. 2016 Jun 14;13:9. doi: 10.1186/s12982-016-0049-8. eCollection 2016.