PMID- 27708471
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20170504
LR  - 20220310
IS  - 1564-0604 (Electronic)
IS  - 0042-9686 (Print)
IS  - 0042-9686 (Linking)
VI  - 94
IP  - 9
DP  - 2016 Sep 1
TI  - Gang truce for violence prevention, El Salvador.
PG  - 660-666A
AB  - OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects on homicide rates of the gang truce that was 
      brokered in El Salvador in 2012. METHODS: Mathematical models based on 
      municipal-level census, crime and gang-intelligence data were used to estimate 
      the effect of the truce on homicide rates. One model estimated the overall effect 
      after accounting for the linear trend and seasonality in the homicide rate. In a 
      moderated-effect model, we investigated the relationship between the truce effect 
      and the numbers of MS13 (Mara Salvatrucha 13) and Eighteenth-Street gang members 
      imprisoned per 100 000 population. We then ran each of these two models with 
      additional control variables. We compared values before the truce - 1 January 
      2010 to 29 February 2012 - with those after the truce - 1 March 2012 to 31 
      December 2013. FINDINGS: The overall-effect models with and without additional 
      control variables indicated a homicide rate after the truce that was 
      significantly lower than the value before the truce, giving rate ratios of 0.55 
      (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.49-0.63) and 0.61 (95% CI: 0.54-0.69), 
      respectively. For any given municipality, the effectiveness of the truce appeared 
      to increase as the number of MS13 gang members imprisoned per 100 000 population 
      increased. We did not observe the same significant relationship for imprisoned 
      Eighteenth-Street gang members. CONCLUSION: In the 22 months following the 
      establishment of a national gang truce, the homicide rate was about 40% lower 
      than in the preceding 26 months. The truce's impact appeared particularly strong 
      in municipalities with relatively high numbers of imprisoned MS13 gang members 
      per 100 000 population.
FAU - Katz, Charles M
AU  - Katz CM
AD  - Center for Violence Prevention & Community Safety, Criminology and Criminal 
      Justice, Arizona State University Programs, 411 N. Central Street, Suite 680, 
      Phoenix, Arizona 85004, United States of America (USA).
FAU - Hedberg, E C
AU  - Hedberg EC
AD  - NORC at the University of Chicago, Chicago, USA .
FAU - Amaya, Luis Enrique
AU  - Amaya LE
AD  - Institute of Science, Technology and Innovation, Universidad Francisco Gavidia, 
      San Salvador, El Salvador .
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20160601
PL  - Switzerland
TA  - Bull World Health Organ
JT  - Bulletin of the World Health Organization
JID - 7507052
SB  - IM
MH  - Crime/statistics & numerical data
MH  - El Salvador/epidemiology
MH  - Homicide/*prevention & control/*statistics & numerical data
MH  - Humans
MH  - Interinstitutional Relations
MH  - *Interpersonal Relations
MH  - Interprofessional Relations
MH  - Models, Statistical
MH  - United States
MH  - Violence/prevention & control/statistics & numerical data
PMC - PMC5034635
EDAT- 2016/10/07 06:00
MHDA- 2017/05/05 06:00
PMCR- 2016/09/01
CRDT- 2016/10/07 06:00
PHST- 2015/11/02 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2016/03/25 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2016/04/04 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2016/10/07 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2016/10/07 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2017/05/05 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2016/09/01 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - BLT.15.166314 [pii]
AID - 10.2471/BLT.15.166314 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Bull World Health Organ. 2016 Sep 1;94(9):660-666A. doi: 10.2471/BLT.15.166314. 
      Epub 2016 Jun 1.