PMID- 28074325 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20180314 LR - 20180314 IS - 1534-4681 (Electronic) IS - 1068-9265 (Linking) VI - 24 IP - 6 DP - 2017 Jun TI - Anticipatory Positive Urine Tests for Bladder Cancer. PG - 1747-1753 LID - 10.1245/s10434-016-5763-5 [doi] AB - PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to establish the criteria defining an anticipatory positive test for bladder cancer. METHODS: We reviewed all patients at our institution who underwent urine cytology or UroVysion fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and cystoscopy from 2003 to 2012. Test performance and cancer anticipation was assessed using generalized linear mixed models, mixed-effects proportional hazards models, and cumulative incidence curves using tests performed within 30 days of each other as well as within a lag time of 1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 6729 urine tests (4729 cytology and 2040 UroVysion FISH) were paired with gold-standard cystoscopies. Sensitivity and specificity were 63 and 41% for cytology, and 37 and 84% for UroVysion FISH, respectively. A 1-year lag time allowed for cancer anticipation and neither test improved. Among patients with positive cytology and initially negative cystoscopy, the hazard ratio of developing a bladder tumor at 1 year was 1.83; 76% of these patients developed a tumor within 1 year. Similarly, among patients with a positive FISH and initially negative cystoscopy, the hazard ratio of developing a bladder tumor at 1 year was 1.56; 40% of these patients developed a tumor within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Urine-based tests for bladder cancer are frequently falsely positive. With further follow-up time, some of these false positive tests are vindicated as true (anticipatory) positive tests, although many will remain false positives. We developed statistical criteria to determine if a test anticipates future cancers or not. FAU - Gopalakrishna, Ajay AU - Gopalakrishna A AD - Division of Urology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. FAU - Fantony, Joseph J AU - Fantony JJ AD - Division of Urology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. FAU - Longo, Thomas A AU - Longo TA AD - Division of Urology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. FAU - Owusu, Richmond AU - Owusu R AD - Division of Urology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. AD - Department of Urology, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA. FAU - Foo, Wen-Chi AU - Foo WC AD - Department of Pathology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. FAU - Dash, Rajesh AU - Dash R AD - Department of Pathology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. FAU - Denton, Brian T AU - Denton BT AD - Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. FAU - Inman, Brant A AU - Inman BA AD - Division of Urology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. brant.inman@duke.edu. LA - eng PT - Journal Article DEP - 20170110 PL - United States TA - Ann Surg Oncol JT - Annals of surgical oncology JID - 9420840 SB - IM MH - Aged MH - Cystoscopy/*methods MH - *Cytodiagnosis MH - Female MH - Follow-Up Studies MH - Humans MH - In Situ Hybridization, Fluorescence/*methods MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - Predictive Value of Tests MH - Retrospective Studies MH - Urinalysis/*methods MH - Urinary Bladder Neoplasms/*diagnosis/urine EDAT- 2017/01/12 06:00 MHDA- 2018/03/15 06:00 CRDT- 2017/01/12 06:00 PHST- 2016/10/01 00:00 [received] PHST- 2017/01/12 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2018/03/15 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2017/01/12 06:00 [entrez] AID - 10.1245/s10434-016-5763-5 [pii] AID - 10.1245/s10434-016-5763-5 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Ann Surg Oncol. 2017 Jun;24(6):1747-1753. doi: 10.1245/s10434-016-5763-5. Epub 2017 Jan 10.