PMID- 28247565 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20180305 LR - 20220330 IS - 1879-0844 (Electronic) IS - 1388-9842 (Linking) VI - 19 IP - 5 DP - 2017 May TI - Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure. PG - 627-634 LID - 10.1002/ejhf.785 [doi] AB - INTRODUCTION: From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to develop and externally validate risk models to predict all-cause mortality and HF hospitalizations. The index cohort consisted of 2516 patients with HF from 69 centres in 11 European countries. The external validation cohort consisted of 1738 comparable patients from six centres in Scotland, UK. Patients from the index cohort had a mean age of 69 years, 27% were female, 83% were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III and the mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 31%. The full prediction models for mortality, hospitalization owing to HF, and the combined outcome, yielded c-statistic values of 0.73, 0.69, and 0.71, respectively. Predictors of mortality and hospitalization owing to HF were remarkably different. The five strongest predictors of mortality were more advanced age, higher blood urea nitrogen and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, lower haemoglobin, and failure to prescribe a beta-blocker. The five strongest predictors of hospitalization owing to HF were more advanced age, previous hospitalization owing to HF, presence of oedema, lower systolic blood pressure and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Patients from the validation cohort were aged 74 years, 34% were female, 85% were in NYHA class II-III, and mean LVEF was 41%; c-statistic values for the full and compact model were comparable to the index cohort. CONCLUSION: A small number of variables, which are usually readily available in the routine clinical setting, provide useful prognostic information for patients with HF. Predictors of mortality were remarkably different from predictors of hospitalization owing to HF. CI - (c) 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure (c) 2017 European Society of Cardiology. FAU - Voors, Adriaan A AU - Voors AA AD - Department of Cardiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Centre Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713, GZ, Groningen, the Netherlands. FAU - Ouwerkerk, Wouter AU - Ouwerkerk W AD - Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Bioinformatics, Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. FAU - Zannad, Faiez AU - Zannad F AD - Inserm CIC 1433, Universite de Lorrain, CHU de Nancy, Nancy, France. FAU - van Veldhuisen, Dirk J AU - van Veldhuisen DJ AD - Department of Cardiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Centre Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713, GZ, Groningen, the Netherlands. FAU - Samani, Nilesh J AU - Samani NJ AD - Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK and NIHR Leicester Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK. FAU - Ponikowski, Piotr AU - Ponikowski P AD - Department of Heart Diseases, Wroclaw Medical University, Poland and Cardiology Department, Military Hospital, Wroclaw, Poland. FAU - Ng, Leong L AU - Ng LL AD - Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK and NIHR Leicester Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK. FAU - Metra, Marco AU - Metra M AD - Institute of Cardiology, Department of Medical and Surgical Specialties, Radiological Sciences and Public Health, University of Brescia, Italy. FAU - Ter Maaten, Jozine M AU - Ter Maaten JM AD - Department of Cardiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Centre Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713, GZ, Groningen, the Netherlands. FAU - Lang, Chim C AU - Lang CC AD - School of Medicine Centre for Cardiovascular and Lung Biology, Division of Medical Sciences, University of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, Dundee, UK. FAU - Hillege, Hans L AU - Hillege HL AD - Department of Cardiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Centre Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713, GZ, Groningen, the Netherlands. FAU - van der Harst, Pim AU - van der Harst P AD - Department of Cardiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Centre Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713, GZ, Groningen, the Netherlands. FAU - Filippatos, Gerasimos AU - Filippatos G AD - Department of Cardiology, Heart Failure Unit, Athens University Hospital Attikon, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece. FAU - Dickstein, Kenneth AU - Dickstein K AD - University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway. AD - University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway. FAU - Cleland, John G AU - Cleland JG AD - National Heart and Lung Institute, Royal Brompton and Harefield Hospitals, Imperial College, London, UK. FAU - Anker, Stefan D AU - Anker SD AD - Innovative Clinical Trials, Department of Cardiology and Pneumology, University Medical Centre Gottingen (UMG), Gottingen, Germany. FAU - Zwinderman, Aeilko H AU - Zwinderman AH AD - Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Bioinformatics, Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. LA - eng GR - British Heart Foundation/United Kingdom PT - Journal Article PT - Multicenter Study PT - Validation Study DEP - 20170301 PL - England TA - Eur J Heart Fail JT - European journal of heart failure JID - 100887595 SB - IM MH - Aged MH - Europe/epidemiology MH - Female MH - Heart Failure/*mortality/physiopathology/therapy MH - Hospital Mortality/trends MH - Hospitalization/*trends MH - Humans MH - Male MH - Predictive Value of Tests MH - Prognosis MH - *Program Development MH - Prospective Studies MH - *Risk Assessment MH - Risk Factors MH - Survival Rate/trends MH - Ventricular Function, Left/*physiology OTO - NOTNLM OT - Heart failure OT - Heart failure hospitalization OT - Mortality OT - Prediction model EDAT- 2017/03/02 06:00 MHDA- 2018/03/06 06:00 CRDT- 2017/03/02 06:00 PHST- 2016/11/23 00:00 [received] PHST- 2016/11/29 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2016/12/05 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2017/03/02 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2018/03/06 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2017/03/02 06:00 [entrez] AID - 10.1002/ejhf.785 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Eur J Heart Fail. 2017 May;19(5):627-634. doi: 10.1002/ejhf.785. Epub 2017 Mar 1.