PMID- 28345541
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20170612
LR  - 20190320
IS  - 2542-5641 (Electronic)
IS  - 0366-6999 (Print)
IS  - 0366-6999 (Linking)
VI  - 130
IP  - 7
DP  - 2017 Apr 5
TI  - A Risk Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Suspected 
      Myocarditis.
PG  - 782-790
LID - 10.4103/0366-6999.202747 [doi]
AB  - BACKGROUND: Myocarditis is an inflammatory disease of the myocardium that may 
      lead to cardiac death in some patients. However, little is known about the 
      predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. Thus, 
      the aim of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for 
      in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis by establishing a 
      risk prediction model. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed to analyze 
      the clinical medical records of 403 consecutive patients with suspected 
      myocarditis who were admitted to Ningbo First Hospital between January 2003 and 
      December 2013. A total of 238 males (59%) and 165 females (41%) were enrolled in 
      this study. We divided the above patients into two subgroups (survival and 
      nonsurvival), according to their clinical in-hospital outcomes. To maximize the 
      effectiveness of the prediction model, we first identified the potential risk 
      factors for in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected myocarditis, 
      based on data pertaining to previously established risk factors and basic patient 
      characteristics. We subsequently established a regression model for predicting 
      in-hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate logistic regression 
      analyses. Finally, we identified the independent risk factors for in-hospital 
      mortality using our risk prediction model. RESULTS: The following prediction 
      model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis, including 
      creatinine clearance rate (Ccr), age, ventricular tachycardia (VT), New York 
      Heart Association (NYHA) classification, gender and cardiac troponin T (cTnT), 
      was established in the study: P = ea/(1 + ea) (where e is the exponential 
      function, P is the probability of in-hospital death, and a = -7.34 + 2.99 x [Ccr 
      <60 ml/min = 1, Ccr >/=60 ml/min = 0] + 2.01 x [age >/=50 years = 1, age <50 years = 
      0] + 1.93 x [VT = 1, no VT = 0] + 1.39 x [NYHA >/=3 = 1, NYHA <3 = 0] + 1.25 x 
      [male = 1, female = 0] + 1.13 x [cTnT >/=50 mug/L = 1, cTnT <50 mug/L = 0]). The area 
      under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.96 (standard error = 
      0.015, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-0.99). The model demonstrated that a 
      Ccr <60 ml/min (odds ratio [OR] = 19.94, 95% CI: 5.66-70.26), an age >/=50 years 
      (OR = 7.43, 95% CI: 2.18-25.34), VT (OR = 6.89, 95% CI: 1.86-25.44), a NYHA 
      classification >/=3 (OR = 4.03, 95% CI: 1.13-14.32), male gender (OR = 3.48, 95% 
      CI: 0.99-12.20), and a cTnT level >/=50 mug/L (OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 0.91-10.62) were 
      the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A Ccr <60 
      ml/min, an age >/=50 years, VT, an NYHA classification >/=3, male gender, and a cTnT 
      level >/=50 mug/L were the independent risk factors resulting from the prediction 
      model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. In 
      addition, sufficient life support during the early stage of the disease might 
      improve the prognoses of patients with suspected myocarditis with multiple risk 
      factors for in-hospital mortality.
FAU - Xu, Duo
AU  - Xu D
AD  - Department of Cardiology, Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo, Zhejiang 315010; 
      Department of Cardiology, CHC International Hospital, Cixi, Zhejiang 315310, 
      China.
FAU - Zhao, Ruo-Chi
AU  - Zhao RC
AD  - Department of Cardiology, Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo, Zhejiang 315010, China.
FAU - Gao, Wen-Hui
AU  - Gao WH
AD  - Department of Cardiology, Ningbo Yinzhou No. 2 Hospital, Ningbo, Zhejiang 315100, 
      China.
FAU - Cui, Han-Bin
AU  - Cui HB
AD  - Department of Cardiology, Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo, Zhejiang 315010, China.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PL  - China
TA  - Chin Med J (Engl)
JT  - Chinese medical journal
JID - 7513795
RN  - 0 (Troponin T)
SB  - IM
MH  - Adult
MH  - Age Factors
MH  - Female
MH  - *Hospital Mortality
MH  - Humans
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Myocarditis/*mortality/pathology
MH  - Odds Ratio
MH  - Prognosis
MH  - ROC Curve
MH  - Retrospective Studies
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - Sex Factors
MH  - Troponin T/metabolism
PMC - PMC5381311
COIS- There are no conflicts of interest.
EDAT- 2017/03/28 06:00
MHDA- 2019/03/21 06:00
PMCR- 2017/04/05
CRDT- 2017/03/28 06:00
PHST- 2017/03/28 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2017/03/28 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2019/03/21 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2017/04/05 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - ChinMedJ_2017_130_7_782_202747 [pii]
AID - CMJ-130-782 [pii]
AID - 10.4103/0366-6999.202747 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Chin Med J (Engl). 2017 Apr 5;130(7):782-790. doi: 10.4103/0366-6999.202747.