PMID- 28886990 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20180606 LR - 20221207 IS - 1873-460X (Electronic) IS - 1056-8727 (Linking) VI - 31 IP - 11 DP - 2017 Nov TI - Comparison of traditional diabetes risk scores and HbA1c to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in a population based cohort study. PG - 1602-1607 LID - S1056-8727(17)30710-9 [pii] LID - 10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2017.07.016 [doi] AB - AIMS: Compare performances of diabetes risk scores and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to estimate the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Northeast Germany. METHODS: We studied 2916 subjects (20 to 81years) from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) in a 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores included the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) base model, the Danish diabetes risk score and the Data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance syndrome (D.E.S.I.R) clinical risk score. We assessed the performance of each of the diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c for 5-year risk of T2DM by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. RESULTS: In SHIP, the incidence of T2DM was 5.4% (n=157) in the 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores and HbA1c achieved AUCs ranging from 0.76 for the D.E.S.I.R. clinical risk score to 0.82 for the KORA base model. For diabetes risk scores, the discriminative ability was lower for the age group 55 to 74years. For HbA1c, the discriminative ability also decreased for the group 55 to 74years while it was stable in the age group 30 to 64years old. CONCLUSIONS: All diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c showed a good prediction for the risk of T2DM in SHIP. Which model or biomarker should be used is driven by its context of use, e.g. the practicability, implementation of interventions and availability of measurement. CI - Copyright (c) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. FAU - Krabbe, Christine Emma Maria AU - Krabbe CEM AD - Department of Study of Health in Pomerania/Clinical-Epidemiological Research, Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. FAU - Schipf, Sabine AU - Schipf S AD - Department of Study of Health in Pomerania/Clinical-Epidemiological Research, Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), partner site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. FAU - Ittermann, Till AU - Ittermann T AD - Department of Study of Health in Pomerania/Clinical-Epidemiological Research, Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. FAU - Dorr, Marcus AU - Dorr M AD - Department of Internal Medicine B, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), partner site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. FAU - Nauck, Matthias AU - Nauck M AD - German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), partner site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. FAU - Chenot, Jean-Francois AU - Chenot JF AD - Department of General Practice, Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. FAU - Markus, Marcello Ricardo Paulista AU - Markus MRP AD - Department of Study of Health in Pomerania/Clinical-Epidemiological Research, Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), partner site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; Department of Internal Medicine B, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), partner site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. Electronic address: marcello.markus@uni-greifswald.de. FAU - Volzke, Henry AU - Volzke H AD - Department of Study of Health in Pomerania/Clinical-Epidemiological Research, Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), partner site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Validation Study DEP - 20170801 PL - United States TA - J Diabetes Complications JT - Journal of diabetes and its complications JID - 9204583 RN - 0 (Biomarkers) RN - 0 (Glycated Hemoglobin A) RN - 0 (hemoglobin A1c protein, human) SB - IM MH - Adult MH - Age Factors MH - Aged MH - Aged, 80 and over MH - Biomarkers/blood MH - Cohort Studies MH - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood/*diagnosis/epidemiology MH - Female MH - Follow-Up Studies MH - Germany/epidemiology MH - Glycated Hemoglobin/*analysis MH - Humans MH - Incidence MH - Male MH - Mass Screening/*methods MH - Middle Aged MH - *Practice Guidelines as Topic MH - Predictive Value of Tests MH - Prevalence MH - Risk Factors MH - Sensitivity and Specificity MH - Young Adult OTO - NOTNLM OT - Epidemiology OT - Health care delivery OT - Prediction of diabetes OT - Prevention of diabetes OT - Screening EDAT- 2017/09/10 06:00 MHDA- 2018/06/07 06:00 CRDT- 2017/09/10 06:00 PHST- 2017/05/16 00:00 [received] PHST- 2017/07/24 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2017/07/27 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2017/09/10 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2018/06/07 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2017/09/10 06:00 [entrez] AID - S1056-8727(17)30710-9 [pii] AID - 10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2017.07.016 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - J Diabetes Complications. 2017 Nov;31(11):1602-1607. doi: 10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2017.07.016. Epub 2017 Aug 1.