PMID- 29175341 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20180601 LR - 20220408 IS - 1872-8227 (Electronic) IS - 0168-8227 (Linking) VI - 137 DP - 2018 Mar TI - Forecasting the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar to 2050: A novel modeling approach. PG - 100-108 LID - S0168-8227(16)31694-1 [pii] LID - 10.1016/j.diabres.2017.11.015 [doi] AB - AIMS: We developed and demonstrated a novel mathematical modeling approach to forecast the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to investigate T2DM epidemiology for the purpose of informing public health policy and programming. METHODS: A population-level compartmental mathematical model was constructed and applied to Qatar. The model was stratified according to sex, age group, risk factor status, and T2DM status, and was parameterized by nationally-representative data. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2012 to at least 24.0% by 2050. The rise in T2DM was most prominent among 45-54 years old. T2DM health expenditure was estimated to increase by 200-600% and to account for up to 32% of total health expenditure by 2050. Prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity was predicted to increase from 41.4% to 51.0%, from 16.4% to 19.4%, and from 45.9% to 53.0%, respectively. The proportion of T2DM incidence attributed to obesity, smoking and physical inactivity was estimated at 57.5%, 1.8%, and 5.4%, respectively in 2012, and 65.7%, 2.1%, and 6.0%, respectively in 2050. Exploring different scenarios for the trends in risk factors, T2DM prevalence reached up to 37.7% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Using our innovative approach, a rising T2DM epidemic is predicted to continue in the next decades, driven by population growth, ageing and adverse trends in risk factors. Obesity was the principal risk factor explaining two-thirds of T2DM incidence. T2DM must be a national priority addressed by preventive and therapeutic interventions targeting T2DM and its modifiable risk factors. CI - Copyright (c) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. FAU - Awad, Susanne F AU - Awad SF AD - Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, UK. Electronic address: sua2006@qatar-med.cornell.edu. FAU - O'Flaherty, Martin AU - O'Flaherty M AD - Division of Public Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK. FAU - Critchley, Julia AU - Critchley J AD - Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, UK. FAU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J AU - Abu-Raddad LJ AD - Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA. Electronic address: lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu. LA - eng PT - Historical Article PT - Journal Article DEP - 20171122 PL - Ireland TA - Diabetes Res Clin Pract JT - Diabetes research and clinical practice JID - 8508335 SB - IM MH - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*epidemiology MH - Female MH - Forecasting/*methods MH - History, 21st Century MH - Humans MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - Obesity/*epidemiology MH - Prevalence MH - Qatar MH - Risk Factors OTO - NOTNLM OT - Mathematical modeling OT - Middle East and North Africa OT - Obesity OT - Qatar OT - Risk factors EDAT- 2017/11/28 06:00 MHDA- 2018/06/02 06:00 CRDT- 2017/11/28 06:00 PHST- 2016/12/01 00:00 [received] PHST- 2017/06/05 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2017/11/10 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2017/11/28 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2018/06/02 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2017/11/28 06:00 [entrez] AID - S0168-8227(16)31694-1 [pii] AID - 10.1016/j.diabres.2017.11.015 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2018 Mar;137:100-108. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2017.11.015. Epub 2017 Nov 22.