PMID- 29466528
OWN - NLM
STAT- PubMed-not-MEDLINE
LR  - 20220316
IS  - 1680-5348 (Electronic)
IS  - 1020-4989 (Print)
IS  - 1020-4989 (Linking)
VI  - 41
DP  - 2018 Feb 19
TI  - [Future type 2 diabetes mellitus scenario estimated with a predictive dynamic 
      simulation model].
PG  - e93
LID - S1020-49892017000100244 [pii]
LID - e93
AB  - OBJECTIVE: Develop a predictive dynamic model to estimate future scenarios for 
      the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: A retrospective 
      ecological study was conducted in 2013-2015 in the city of San Luis Potosi, 
      Mexico. Secondary official data from the 58 municipalities making up the state of 
      San Luis Potosi were analyzed. Linear correlation, multiple linear regression, 
      and structural equations were carried out, and four predictive dynamic submodels 
      were developed: T2DM, urban population, inhabited private dwellings that have 
      television, and population aged 45-49 years. A holistic model was also developed. 
      RESULTS: The structural model explains 27.2% of total variance in type 2 diabetes 
      mellitus. Percentage of inhabited dwellings that have television weighs 4.46 
      non-standard units on diabetes; that of urban population, 2.84; and that of 
      population aged 45-49 years, 156.69. Estimated scenarios for T2DM per 100 000 
      population for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 were 1,052.4, 1,413.7, 
      1,850.1, and 2,351.1 respectively. CONCLUSION: The T2DM scenario shows 
      exponential growth from 2000 to 2030. Risk factors according to the weight they 
      represent in occurrence of the disease were: population aged 45-49 years, 
      inhabited private dwellings that have television, and urban population.
FAU - Gaytan-Hernandez, Dario
AU  - Gaytan-Hernandez D
AD  - Facultad Enfermeria, Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi-Posgrado, San Luis 
      Potosi, San Luis Potosi, Mexico. La correspondencia se debe dirigir a Sandra 
      Olimpia Gutierrez. Correo electronico: sgutierr@uaslp.mx.
FAU - Gutierrez-Enriquez, Sandra Olimpia
AU  - Gutierrez-Enriquez SO
AD  - Facultad Enfermeria, Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi-Posgrado, San Luis 
      Potosi, San Luis Potosi, Mexico. La correspondencia se debe dirigir a Sandra 
      Olimpia Gutierrez. Correo electronico: sgutierr@uaslp.mx.
FAU - Diaz-Oviedo, Aracely
AU  - Diaz-Oviedo A
AD  - Facultad Enfermeria, Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi-Posgrado, San Luis 
      Potosi, San Luis Potosi, Mexico. La correspondencia se debe dirigir a Sandra 
      Olimpia Gutierrez. Correo electronico: sgutierr@uaslp.mx.
FAU - Gonzalez-Acevedo, Claudia Elena
AU  - Gonzalez-Acevedo CE
AD  - Facultad Enfermeria, Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi-Posgrado, San Luis 
      Potosi, San Luis Potosi, Mexico. La correspondencia se debe dirigir a Sandra 
      Olimpia Gutierrez. Correo electronico: sgutierr@uaslp.mx.
FAU - Miranda-Herrera, Magdalena
AU  - Miranda-Herrera M
AD  - Facultad Enfermeria, Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi-Posgrado, San Luis 
      Potosi, San Luis Potosi, Mexico. La correspondencia se debe dirigir a Sandra 
      Olimpia Gutierrez. Correo electronico: sgutierr@uaslp.mx.
FAU - Hernandez-Ibarra, Luis Eduardo
AU  - Hernandez-Ibarra LE
AD  - Facultad Enfermeria, Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi-Posgrado, San Luis 
      Potosi, San Luis Potosi, Mexico. La correspondencia se debe dirigir a Sandra 
      Olimpia Gutierrez. Correo electronico: sgutierr@uaslp.mx.
LA  - spa
PT  - English Abstract
PT  - Journal Article
TT  - Escenario futuro de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2 estimado con un modelo de 
      simulacion dinamico predictivo.
DEP - 20180219
PL  - United States
TA  - Rev Panam Salud Publica
JT  - Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health
JID - 9705400
PMC - PMC6645193
COIS- Conflictos de interes. Los autores declaran no tener conflictos de interes.
EDAT- 2018/02/22 06:00
MHDA- 2018/02/22 06:01
PMCR- 2017/09/29
CRDT- 2018/02/22 06:00
PHST- 2016/05/27 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2016/12/03 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2018/02/22 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2018/02/22 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2018/02/22 06:01 [medline]
PHST- 2017/09/29 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - S1020-49892017000100244 [pii]
AID - RPSP.2017.93 [pii]
AID - 10.26633/RPSP.2017.93 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2018 Feb 19;41:e93. doi: 10.26633/RPSP.2017.93.