PMID- 29553059
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20180823
LR  - 20181114
IS  - 1349-9092 (Electronic)
IS  - 0917-5040 (Print)
IS  - 0917-5040 (Linking)
VI  - 28
IP  - 8
DP  - 2018 Aug 5
TI  - A Point System for Predicting 10-Year Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus 
      in Japanese Men: Aichi Workers' Cohort Study.
PG  - 347-352
LID - 10.2188/jea.JE20170048 [doi]
AB  - BACKGROUND: Relatively little evidence exists for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) 
      prediction models from long-term follow-up studies in East Asians. This study 
      aims to develop a point-based prediction model for 10-year risk of developing 
      T2DM in middle-aged Japanese men. METHODS: We followed 3,540 male participants of 
      Aichi Workers' Cohort Study, who were aged 35-64 years and were free of diabetes 
      in 2002, until March 31, 2015. Baseline age, body mass index (BMI), smoking 
      status, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, medication for dyslipidemia, 
      diabetes family history, and blood levels of triglycerides (TG), high density 
      lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were examined 
      using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables significantly associated with T2DM 
      in univariable models were simultaneously entered in a multivariable model for 
      determination of the final model using backward variable selection. Performance 
      of an existing T2DM model when applied to the current dataset was compared to 
      that obtained in the present study's model. RESULTS: During the median follow-up 
      of 12.2 years, 342 incident T2DM cases were documented. The prediction system 
      using points assigned to age, BMI, smoking status, diabetes family history, and 
      TG and FBG showed reasonable discrimination (c-index: 0.77) and goodness-of-fit 
      (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.22). The present model outperformed the previous one 
      in the present subjects. CONCLUSION: The point system, once validated in the 
      other populations, could be applied to middle-aged Japanese male workers to 
      identify those at high risk of developing T2DM. In addition, further 
      investigation is also required to examine whether the use of this system will 
      reduce incidence.
FAU - Yatsuya, Hiroshi
AU  - Yatsuya H
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-6220-9251
AD  - Department of Public Health, Fujita Health University School of Medicine.
AD  - Department of Public Health and Health Systems, Nagoya University Graduate School 
      of Medicine.
FAU - Li, Yuanying
AU  - Li Y
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-4059-6406
AD  - Department of Public Health, Fujita Health University School of Medicine.
FAU - Hirakawa, Yoshihisa
AU  - Hirakawa Y
AD  - Department of Public Health and Health Systems, Nagoya University Graduate School 
      of Medicine.
FAU - Ota, Atsuhiko
AU  - Ota A
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-6452-1823
AD  - Department of Public Health, Fujita Health University School of Medicine.
FAU - Matsunaga, Masaaki
AU  - Matsunaga M
AD  - Department of Public Health, Fujita Health University School of Medicine.
FAU - Haregot, Hilawe Esayas
AU  - Haregot HE
AD  - Department of Public Health and Health Systems, Nagoya University Graduate School 
      of Medicine.
FAU - Chiang, Chifa
AU  - Chiang C
AD  - Department of Public Health and Health Systems, Nagoya University Graduate School 
      of Medicine.
FAU - Zhang, Yan
AU  - Zhang Y
AD  - Department of Public Health and Health Systems, Nagoya University Graduate School 
      of Medicine.
FAU - Tamakoshi, Koji
AU  - Tamakoshi K
AD  - Department of Nursing, Nagoya University School of Health Science.
FAU - Toyoshima, Hideaki
AU  - Toyoshima H
AD  - Education and Clinical Research Training Center, Anjo Kosei Hospital.
FAU - Aoyama, Atsuko
AU  - Aoyama A
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-2717-4919
AD  - Department of Public Health and Health Systems, Nagoya University Graduate School 
      of Medicine.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20180317
PL  - Japan
TA  - J Epidemiol
JT  - Journal of epidemiology
JID - 9607688
SB  - IM
MH  - Adult
MH  - Cohort Studies
MH  - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*epidemiology
MH  - Follow-Up Studies
MH  - Humans
MH  - Incidence
MH  - Japan/epidemiology
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Reproducibility of Results
MH  - Risk Assessment/*methods
PMC - PMC6048299
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - cohort study
OT  - incidence
OT  - risk prediction
OT  - type 2 diabetes mellitus
EDAT- 2018/03/20 06:00
MHDA- 2018/08/24 06:00
PMCR- 2018/08/05
CRDT- 2018/03/20 06:00
PHST- 2018/03/20 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2018/08/24 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2018/03/20 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2018/08/05 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - JE20170048 [pii]
AID - 10.2188/jea.JE20170048 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - J Epidemiol. 2018 Aug 5;28(8):347-352. doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20170048. Epub 2018 Mar 
      17.