PMID- 29708084
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20190117
LR  - 20220716
IS  - 1469-4409 (Electronic)
IS  - 0950-2688 (Print)
IS  - 0950-2688 (Linking)
VI  - 146
IP  - 8
DP  - 2018 Jun
TI  - Age bias in survey sampling and implications for estimating HIV prevalence in men 
      who have sex with men: insights from mathematical modelling.
PG  - 1036-1042
LID - 10.1017/S0950268818000961 [doi]
AB  - Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is widely used to estimate HIV prevalence in men 
      who have sex with men (MSM). Mathematical models that are calibrated to these 
      data may be compromised if they fail to account for selection biases in RDS 
      surveys. To quantify the potential extent of this bias, an agent-based model of 
      HIV in South Africa was calibrated to HIV prevalence and sexual behaviour data 
      from South African studies of MSM, first reweighting the modelled MSM population 
      to match the younger age profile of the RDS surveys (age-adjusted analysis) and 
      then without reweighting (unadjusted analysis). The model estimated a median HIV 
      prevalence in South African MSM in 2015 of 34.6% (inter-quartile range (IQR): 
      31.4-37.2%) in the age-adjusted analysis, compared with 26.1% (IQR: 24.1-28.4%) 
      in the unadjusted analysis. The median lifetime risk of acquiring HIV in 
      exclusively homosexual men was 88% (IQR: 82-92%) in the age-adjusted analysis, 
      compared with 76% (IQR: 64-85%) in the unadjusted analysis. These results suggest 
      that RDS studies may under-estimate the exceptionally high HIV prevalence rates 
      in South African MSM because of over-sampling of younger MSM. Mathematical models 
      that are calibrated to these data need to control for likely over-sampling of 
      younger MSM.
FAU - Johnson, L F
AU  - Johnson LF
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-2717-011X
AD  - Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research,University of Cape 
      Town,South Africa.
FAU - Mulongeni, P
AU  - Mulongeni P
AD  - Desmond Tutu HIV Centre,Institute for Infectious Disease and Molecular 
      Medicine,University of Cape Town,South Africa.
FAU - Marr, A
AU  - Marr A
AD  - Institute for Global Health Sciences,University of California San Francisco,USA.
FAU - Lane, T
AU  - Lane T
AD  - Institute for Global Health Sciences,University of California San Francisco,USA.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20180430
PL  - England
TA  - Epidemiol Infect
JT  - Epidemiology and infection
JID - 8703737
SB  - IM
MH  - Adolescent
MH  - Adult
MH  - Bias
MH  - HIV Infections/*epidemiology
MH  - Homosexuality, Male/*statistics & numerical data
MH  - Humans
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Models, Theoretical
MH  - Prevalence
MH  - Sampling Studies
MH  - South Africa/epidemiology
MH  - Young Adult
PMC - PMC9184957
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - HIV incidence
OT  - Men who have sex with men
OT  - South Africa
OT  - mathematical modelling
COIS- The authors have no competing interests to declare.
EDAT- 2018/05/01 06:00
MHDA- 2019/01/18 06:00
PMCR- 2022/06/10
CRDT- 2018/05/01 06:00
PHST- 2018/05/01 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2019/01/18 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2018/05/01 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2022/06/10 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - S0950268818000961 [pii]
AID - 00096 [pii]
AID - 10.1017/S0950268818000961 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Epidemiol Infect. 2018 Jun;146(8):1036-1042. doi: 10.1017/S0950268818000961. Epub 
      2018 Apr 30.