PMID- 29738265
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20190930
LR  - 20220408
IS  - 1735-3947 (Electronic)
IS  - 1029-2977 (Linking)
VI  - 21
IP  - 5
DP  - 2018 May 1
TI  - Estimation and Prediction of Avoidable Health Care Costs of Cardiovascular 
      Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Through Adequate Dairy Food Consumption: A 
      Systematic Review and Micro Simulation Modeling Study.
PG  - 213-222
AB  - BACKGROUND: Recent evidence from prospective cohort studies show a relationship 
      between consumption of dairy foods and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and type 2 
      diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This association highlights the importance of dairy 
      foods consumption in prevention of these diseases and also reduction of 
      associated healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable 
      healthcare costs of CVD and T2D through adequate dairy foods consumption in Iran. 
      METHODS: This was a multistage modelling study. We conducted a systematic 
      literature review in PubMed and EMBASE to identify any association between 
      incidence of CVD and T2DM and dairy foods intake, and also associated relative 
      risks. We obtained age- and sex-specific dairy foods consumption level and 
      healthcare expenditures from national surveys and studies. Patient level 
      simulation Markov models were constructed to predict the disease incidence, 
      patient population size and associated healthcare costs for current and optimal 
      dairy foods consumption at different time horizons (1, 5, 10 and 20 years). All 
      parameters including costs and transition probabilities were defined as 
      statistical distributions in the models, and all analyses were conducted by 
      accounting for first and second order uncertainty. RESULTS: The systematic review 
      results indicated that dairy foods consumption was inversely associated with 
      incidence of T2DM, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. We estimated that the 
      introduction of a diet containing 3 servings of dairy foods per day may produce a 
      $0.43 saving in annual per capita healthcare costs in Iran in the first year due 
      to saving in cost of CVD and T2DM treatment. The estimated savings in per capita 
      healthcare costs were $8.42, $39.97 and $190.25 in 5, 10 and 20-years' time, 
      respectively. Corresponding total aggregated avoidable costs for the entire 
      Iranian population within the study time horizons were $33.83, $661.31, $3,138.21 
      and $14,934.63 million, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our analysis demonstrated that 
      increasing dairy foods consumption to recommended levels would be associated with 
      reductions in healthcare costs. Further randomized trial studies are required to 
      investigate the effect of dairy foods intake on cost of CVD and T2DM in the 
      population.
CI  - (c) 2018 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms 
      of the Creative Commons Attribution License 
      (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, 
      distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is 
      properly cited.
FAU - Javanbakht, Mehdi
AU  - Javanbakht M
AD  - Health Economics Group, Institute of Health & Society, Newcastle University, UK.
FAU - Jamshidi, Ahmad Reza
AU  - Jamshidi AR
AD  - Rheumatology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 
      Iran.
FAU - Baradaran, Hamid Reza
AU  - Baradaran HR
AD  - Endocrine Research Center, Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Iran 
      University of Medical Sciences, Iran.
FAU - Mohammadi, Zahra
AU  - Mohammadi Z
AD  - Rheumatology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 
      Iran.
FAU - Mashayekhi, Atefeh
AU  - Mashayekhi A
AD  - Health Economics Group, Institute of Health & Society, Newcastle University, UK.
FAU - Shokraneh, Farhad
AU  - Shokraneh F
AD  - Cochrane Schizophrenia Group, University of Nottingham, UK.
FAU - Rezai Hamami, Mohsen
AU  - Rezai Hamami M
AD  - Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health and 
      Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, UK.
FAU - Yazdani Bakhsh, Raziyeh
AU  - Yazdani Bakhsh R
AD  - Health Information Management, Health Management and Economic Research Center, 
      Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
FAU - Shabaninejad, Hossien
AU  - Shabaninejad H
AD  - Department of Health Services Management, School of Health Management and 
      Information Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Iran.
FAU - Delavari, Sajad
AU  - Delavari S
AD  - Health Human Resources Research Center, School of Management & Information 
      Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
FAU - Tehrani, Arash
AU  - Tehrani A
AD  - Endocrine Research Center, Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Iran 
      University of Medical Sciences, Iran.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Systematic Review
DEP - 20180501
PL  - Iran
TA  - Arch Iran Med
JT  - Archives of Iranian medicine
JID - 100889644
SB  - IM
MH  - Cardiovascular Diseases/economics/epidemiology/*prevention & control
MH  - Cost Savings
MH  - *Dairy Products
MH  - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/economics/epidemiology/*prevention & control
MH  - *Diet
MH  - Health Care Costs/*statistics & numerical data
MH  - Humans
MH  - Incidence
MH  - Iran
MH  - Markov Chains
MH  - Models, Economic
MH  - Risk Factors
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Avoidable cost
OT  - Cardiovascular diseases
OT  - Dairy foods
OT  - Diabetes
OT  - Iran
OT  - Markov model
EDAT- 2018/05/09 06:00
MHDA- 2019/10/01 06:00
CRDT- 2018/05/09 06:00
PHST- 2016/08/22 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2018/01/31 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2018/05/09 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2018/05/09 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2019/10/01 06:00 [medline]
AID - S1029-2977-21(05)213-0 [pii]
PST - epublish
SO  - Arch Iran Med. 2018 May 1;21(5):213-222.