PMID- 30044029
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20190506
LR  - 20240402
IS  - 1750-2659 (Electronic)
IS  - 1750-2640 (Print)
IS  - 1750-2640 (Linking)
VI  - 12
IP  - 6
DP  - 2018 Nov
TI  - Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting.
PG  - 742-754
LID - 10.1111/irv.12595 [doi]
AB  - BACKGROUND: In temperate and subtropical climates, respiratory diseases exhibit 
      seasonal peaks in winter. In the tropics, with no winter, peak timings are 
      irregular. METHODS: To obtain a detailed picture of influenza-like illness (ILI) 
      patterns in the tropics, we established an mHealth study in community clinics in 
      Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During 2009-2015, clinics reported daily case numbers 
      via SMS, with a subset performing molecular diagnostics for influenza virus. This 
      real-time epidemiology network absorbs 6000 ILI reports annually, one or two 
      orders of magnitude more than typical surveillance systems. A real-time online 
      ILI indicator was developed to inform clinicians of the daily ILI activity in 
      HCMC. RESULTS: From August 2009 to December 2015, 63 clinics were enrolled and 36 
      920 SMS reports were received, covering approximately 1.7M outpatient visits. 
      Approximately 10.6% of outpatients met the ILI case definition. ILI activity in 
      HCMC exhibited strong nonannual dynamics with a dominant periodicity of 206 days. 
      This was confirmed by time series decomposition, stepwise regression, and a 
      forecasting exercise showing that median forecasting errors are 30%-40% lower 
      when using a 206-day cycle. In ILI patients from whom nasopharyngeal swabs were 
      taken, 31.2% were positive for influenza. There was no correlation between the 
      ILI time series and the time series of influenza, influenza A, or influenza B 
      (all P > 0.15). CONCLUSION: This suggests, for the first time, that a nonannual 
      cycle may be an essential driver of respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics. 
      An immunological interference hypothesis is discussed as a potential underlying 
      mechanism.
CI  - (c) 2018 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John 
      Wiley & Sons Ltd.
FAU - Lam, Ha Minh
AU  - Lam HM
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Wesolowski, Amy
AU  - Wesolowski A
AD  - Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard 
      T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
AD  - Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, 
      New Jersey.
FAU - Hung, Nguyen Thanh
AU  - Hung NT
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Nguyen, Tran Dang
AU  - Nguyen TD
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Nhat, Nguyen Thi Duy
AU  - Nhat NTD
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Todd, Stacy
AU  - Todd S
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-3215-9625
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
AD  - Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
FAU - Vinh, Dao Nguyen
AU  - Vinh DN
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Vy, Nguyen Ha Thao
AU  - Vy NHT
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Thao, Tran Thi Nhu
AU  - Thao TTN
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Thanh, Nguyen Thi Le
AU  - Thanh NTL
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Tin, Phan Tri
AU  - Tin PT
AD  - Viet My Clinics, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Minh, Ngo Ngoc Quang
AU  - Minh NNQ
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
AD  - Children's Hospital No. 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Bryant, Juliet E
AU  - Bryant JE
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
AD  - Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, 
      University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
FAU - Buckee, Caroline O
AU  - Buckee CO
AD  - Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard 
      T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
FAU - Ngoc, Tran Van
AU  - Ngoc TV
AD  - Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Chau, Nguyen Van Vinh
AU  - Chau NVV
AD  - Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Thwaites, Guy E
AU  - Thwaites GE
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
AD  - Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, 
      University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
FAU - Farrar, Jeremy
AU  - Farrar J
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
AD  - Wellcome Trust, London, UK.
FAU - Tam, Dong Thi Hoai
AU  - Tam DTH
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Vinh, Ha
AU  - Vinh H
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
AD  - Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
AD  - Department of Infectious Diseases, Pham Ngoc Thach University of Medicine, Ho Chi 
      Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Boni, Maciej F
AU  - Boni MF
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-0830-9630
AD  - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas 
      Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
AD  - Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, 
      University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
AD  - Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State 
      University, University Park, Pennsylvania.
LA  - eng
GR  - 106866/Z/15/Z/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom
GR  - 097465/B/11/Z/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom
GR  - 098511/Z/12/Z/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom
GR  - 089276/B/09/7/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom
GR  - U54 GM088558/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States
GR  - Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom
GR  - 1U54GM088558/NH/NIH HHS/United States
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20180821
PL  - England
TA  - Influenza Other Respir Viruses
JT  - Influenza and other respiratory viruses
JID - 101304007
SB  - IM
MH  - Epidemiological Monitoring
MH  - Humans
MH  - Influenza, Human/*epidemiology
MH  - Orthomyxoviridae/*isolation & purification
MH  - Tropical Climate
MH  - Urban Population
MH  - Vietnam/epidemiology
PMC - PMC6185894
EDAT- 2018/07/26 06:00
MHDA- 2019/05/07 06:00
PMCR- 2018/11/01
CRDT- 2018/07/26 06:00
PHST- 2017/12/11 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2018/07/04 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2018/07/06 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2018/07/26 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2019/05/07 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2018/07/26 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2018/11/01 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - IRV12595 [pii]
AID - 10.1111/irv.12595 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2018 Nov;12(6):742-754. doi: 10.1111/irv.12595. 
      Epub 2018 Aug 21.