PMID- 30107702
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20190405
LR  - 20190405
IS  - 0529-5815 (Print)
IS  - 0529-5815 (Linking)
VI  - 56
IP  - 8
DP  - 2018 Aug 1
TI  - [Establishment of multiple predictor models of severe acute pancreatitis in 
      elderly patients].
PG  - 597-602
LID - 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0529-5815.2018.08.009 [doi]
AB  - Objective: To investigate the prognostic factors related to the severity of acute 
      pancreatitis and to establish the multiple predictor models of severe acute 
      pancreatitis(SAP) in elderly patients. Methods: Clinical data of 146 consecutive 
      elderly patients who met the inclusion criteria between January 2014 and May 2017 
      at Department of Pancreatic and Biliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of 
      Harbin Medical University were retrospectively collected and analyzed, wherein 88 
      cases were mild acute pancreatitis, 29 cases were moderately severe acute 
      pancreatitis and 29 cases were SAP. The patients data were subjected to 
      univariate analysis and multiple classified Logistic regression analysis for 
      independent prognostic factors of the severity of acute pancreatitis in elderly 
      patients. Unweighted predictive score(unwScore) and weighted predictive 
      score(wScore)for SAP in elderly patients were established according which the 
      receiver-operating characteristic(ROC) curves of independent prognostic factors 
      and predictor models were produced. The cutoff values of independeut prognostic 
      factors and predictor models were determined. The area under the curve, the 
      sensitivity, the specificity, the positive predictive value and the negative 
      predictive value to verify the predictive efficiency of the independent 
      prognostic factors and predictor models were calculated. Results: 
      Procalcitonin(PCT)(Z=10.564, P=0.000), blood urea nitrogen(BUN)(Z=22.231, 
      P=0.003), serum creatinine(Scr)(Z=14.151, P=0.030), serum calcium(Z=34.979, 
      P=0.032) and pleural effusion(chi(2)=28.463, P=0.015) were independent prognostic 
      factors of the severity of acute pancreatitis by univariate analysis and multiple 
      classified Logistic regression analysis in elderly patients. Respectively, the 
      area under the curve of PCT, BUN, Scr, serum calcium and pleural effusion were 
      0.908, 0.737, 0.701, 0.753, 0.712, the sensitivity were 0.828, 0.621, 0.552, 
      0.690, 0.517, the specificity were 0.915, 0.786, 0.846, 0.966, 0.906, the 
      positive predictive value were 70.6%, 41.9%, 47.1%, 83.3%, 57.7%, the negative 
      predictive value were 95.5%, 89.3%, 88.4%, 92.6%, 88.3%. Respectively, the area 
      under the curve of unwScore and wScore were 0.915 and 0.953, the sensitivity were 
      0.759 and 0.931, the specificity were 0.889 and 0.915, the positive predictive 
      value were 62.9% and 73.0%, the negative predictive value were 93.7% and 98.2%. 
      Conclusions: PCT, BUN, Scr, serum calcium and pleural effusion were independent 
      prognostic factors of the severity of acute pancreatitis in elderly patients. The 
      multiple predictor models of SAP in elderly patients have a good predictive 
      efficiency, which may provide valuable clinical reference for prediction and 
      treatment.
FAU - Zhu, Z W
AU  - Zhu ZW
AD  - Department of Pancreatic and Biliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of 
      Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150001, China.
FAU - Li, G Z
AU  - Li GZ
FAU - Sun, B
AU  - Sun B
FAU - Guo, D X
AU  - Guo DX
FAU - Zuo, Z Q
AU  - Zuo ZQ
FAU - Tan, H T
AU  - Tan HT
FAU - Jiang, H C
AU  - Jiang HC
LA  - chi
GR  - QC2010124/Heilongjiang Province Foundation for Youths/
GR  - 12541290/Science and Technology Research Project of Educational Commission of 
      Heilongjiang Province/
PT  - Journal Article
PL  - China
TA  - Zhonghua Wai Ke Za Zhi
JT  - Zhonghua wai ke za zhi [Chinese journal of surgery]
JID - 0153611
RN  - 0 (Biomarkers)
SB  - IM
MH  - Acute Disease
MH  - Aged
MH  - Biomarkers
MH  - Humans
MH  - *Pancreatitis/diagnosis
MH  - Predictive Value of Tests
MH  - Prognosis
MH  - ROC Curve
MH  - Retrospective Studies
MH  - Severity of Illness Index
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Aged
OT  - Pancreatitis, acute necrotizing
OT  - Predictive model
OT  - Procalcitonin
EDAT- 2018/08/16 06:00
MHDA- 2019/04/06 06:00
CRDT- 2018/08/15 06:00
PHST- 2018/08/15 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2018/08/16 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2019/04/06 06:00 [medline]
AID - 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0529-5815.2018.08.009 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Zhonghua Wai Ke Za Zhi. 2018 Aug 1;56(8):597-602. doi: 
      10.3760/cma.j.issn.0529-5815.2018.08.009.