PMID- 30142800
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20180904
LR  - 20221005
IS  - 1536-5964 (Electronic)
IS  - 0025-7974 (Print)
IS  - 0025-7974 (Linking)
VI  - 97
IP  - 34
DP  - 2018 Aug
TI  - Prediction model of the progression of patients with acute deterioration of 
      hepatitis B virus-related chronic liver disease to acute-on-chronic liver 
      failure.
PG  - e11915
LID - 10.1097/MD.0000000000011915 [doi]
LID - e11915
AB  - This study aimed to establish a new model for predicting acute-on-chronic liver 
      failure (ACLF) (defined by the Chinese Medical Association), which potentially 
      occurs among patients with acute deterioration (AD) of hepatitis B virus 
      (HBV)-related chronic liver disease (CLD).A total of 754 patients with AD of 
      HBV-related CLD (total bilirubin (TBIL) > 51.3 mumol/L and prothrombin activity 
      (PTA) < 60%, 40% < PTA < 60% when TBIL >/= 171.1 mumol/L) were retrospectively 
      analyzed and divided into a training cohort (580 patients) and a validation 
      cohort (174 patients). The ACLF occurrence probability of these patients was 
      statistically analyzed within 4 weeks. In the training cohort, multivariate 
      logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the independent 
      predictors of ACLF occurrence and to develop a new prediction model. The 
      validation cohort was utilized to verify and evaluate the value of the new 
      prediction model.Within 4 weeks, 9.9% of the patients progressed to ACLF 
      (12.0 +/- 6.7 days). The new prediction model was characterized by 
      R = 3.090 + 0.035 x Age (years) - 0.050 x PTA (%) + 0.005 x TBIL 
      (mumol/L) + 0.044 x D/T (%) - 0.072 x Na (mmol/L) + 0.180 x HBV DNA (log10IU/mL). 
      The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the training and 
      validation cohorts in the new model were higher than those in the model for 
      end-stage liver disease.The new prediction model could be used by clinicians to 
      recognize patients with AD of HBV-related CLD with high risks of progressing to 
      ACLF.
FAU - Li, Chen
AU  - Li C
AD  - Liver Failure Treatment and Research Center, 302 Military Hospital, Beijing, P.R. 
      China.
FAU - Zhu, Bing
AU  - Zhu B
FAU - Lv, Sa
AU  - Lv S
FAU - You, Shaoli
AU  - You S
FAU - Xin, Shaojie
AU  - Xin S
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Observational Study
PL  - United States
TA  - Medicine (Baltimore)
JT  - Medicine
JID - 2985248R
RN  - 0 (Biomarkers)
SB  - IM
MH  - Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure/etiology/*metabolism
MH  - Adult
MH  - Area Under Curve
MH  - Biomarkers/metabolism
MH  - Disease Progression
MH  - Female
MH  - Hepatitis B, Chronic/*complications/*metabolism
MH  - Humans
MH  - Logistic Models
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Models, Statistical
MH  - Prognosis
MH  - ROC Curve
MH  - Retrospective Studies
PMC - PMC6113025
COIS- The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose.
EDAT- 2018/08/26 06:00
MHDA- 2018/09/05 06:00
PMCR- 2018/08/24
CRDT- 2018/08/26 06:00
PHST- 2018/08/26 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2018/08/26 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2018/09/05 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2018/08/24 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 00005792-201808240-00052 [pii]
AID - MD-D-18-02010 [pii]
AID - 10.1097/MD.0000000000011915 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Medicine (Baltimore). 2018 Aug;97(34):e11915. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000011915.