PMID- 30151826 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20190314 LR - 20210910 IS - 1475-6773 (Electronic) IS - 0017-9124 (Print) IS - 0017-9124 (Linking) VI - 53 IP - 6 DP - 2018 Dec TI - Development of an Adverse Event Surveillance Model for Outpatient Surgery in the Veterans Health Administration. PG - 4507-4528 LID - 10.1111/1475-6773.13037 [doi] AB - OBJECTIVE: Develop and validate a surveillance model to identify outpatient surgical adverse events (AEs) based on previously developed electronic triggers. DATA SOURCES: Veterans Health Administration's Corporate Data Warehouse. STUDY DESIGN: Six surgical AE triggers, including postoperative emergency room visits and hospitalizations, were applied to FY2012-2014 outpatient surgeries (n = 744,355). We randomly sampled trigger-flagged and unflagged cases for nurse chart review to document AEs and measured positive predictive value (PPV) for triggers. Next, we used chart review data to iteratively estimate multilevel logistic regression models to predict the probability of an AE, starting with the six triggers and adding in patient, procedure, and facility characteristics to improve model fit. We validated the final model by applying the coefficients to FY2015 outpatient surgery data (n = 256,690) and reviewing charts for cases at high and moderate probability of an AE. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of 1,730 FY2012-2014 reviewed surgeries, 350 had an AE (20 percent). The final surveillance model c-statistic was 0.81. In FY2015 surgeries with >0.8 predicted probability of an AE (n = 405, 0.15 percent), PPV was 85 percent; in surgeries with a 0.4-0.5 predicted probability of an AE, PPV was 38 percent. CONCLUSIONS: The surveillance model performed well, accurately identifying outpatient surgeries with a high probability of an AE. CI - Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. FAU - Mull, Hillary J AU - Mull HJ AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-4484-0445 AD - Center for Healthcare Organization and Implementation Research (CHOIR), VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA. AD - Department of Surgery, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA. FAU - Itani, Kamal M F AU - Itani KMF AD - Department of Surgery, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA. AD - Department of Surgery, VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA. AD - Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA. FAU - Pizer, Steven D AU - Pizer SD AD - Department of Veterans Affairs, Partnered Evidence-based Policy Resource Center (PEPReC), Boston, MA. AD - Department of Health Law, Policy and Management, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA. FAU - Charns, Martin P AU - Charns MP AD - Center for Healthcare Organization and Implementation Research (CHOIR), VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA. AD - Department of Health Law, Policy and Management, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA. FAU - Rivard, Peter E AU - Rivard PE AD - Center for Healthcare Organization and Implementation Research (CHOIR), VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA. AD - Healthcare Administration, Sawyer Business School Suffolk University, Boston, MA. FAU - McIntosh, Nathalie AU - McIntosh N AD - Massachusetts Health Quality Partners (MHQP), Boston, MA. FAU - Hawn, Mary T AU - Hawn MT AD - Palo Alto VA Medical Center, Palo Alto, CA. AD - Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA. FAU - Rosen, Amy K AU - Rosen AK AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-7539-7749 AD - Center for Healthcare Organization and Implementation Research (CHOIR), VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA. AD - Department of Surgery, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA. LA - eng GR - IK2 HX001520/HX/HSRD VA/United States PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. DEP - 20180827 PL - United States TA - Health Serv Res JT - Health services research JID - 0053006 SB - IM MH - Algorithms MH - Ambulatory Surgical Procedures/*adverse effects MH - Databases, Factual MH - Hospitalization MH - Humans MH - Patient Readmission MH - *Patient Safety MH - *Postoperative Complications/etiology MH - Quality Indicators, Health Care/*standards MH - Quality of Health Care MH - Reproducibility of Results MH - Retrospective Studies MH - United States MH - United States Department of Veterans Affairs MH - Veterans PMC - PMC6232409 OTO - NOTNLM OT - Modeling: multilevel OT - VA health care system OT - ambulatory/outpatient care OT - quality of care/ patient safety (measurement) OT - surgery EDAT- 2018/08/29 06:00 MHDA- 2019/03/15 06:00 PMCR- 2019/12/01 CRDT- 2018/08/29 06:00 PHST- 2018/08/29 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2019/03/15 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2018/08/29 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2019/12/01 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - HESR13037 [pii] AID - 10.1111/1475-6773.13037 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Health Serv Res. 2018 Dec;53(6):4507-4528. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13037. Epub 2018 Aug 27.