PMID- 30213278
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20200716
LR  - 20200716
IS  - 1469-8978 (Electronic)
IS  - 0033-2917 (Linking)
VI  - 49
IP  - 12
DP  - 2019 Sep
TI  - Prediction of psychosis in prodrome: development and validation of a simple, 
      personalized risk calculator.
PG  - 1990-1998
LID - 10.1017/S0033291718002738 [doi]
AB  - BACKGROUND: This study aim to derive and validate a simple and well-performing 
      risk calculator (RC) for predicting psychosis in individual patients at clinical 
      high risk (CHR). METHODS: From the ongoing ShangHai-At-Risk-for-Psychosis (SHARP) 
      program, 417 CHR cases were identified based on the Structured Interview for 
      Prodromal Symptoms (SIPS), of whom 349 had at least 1-year follow-up assessment. 
      Of these 349 cases, 83 converted to psychosis. Logistic regression was used to 
      build a multivariate model to predict conversion. The area under the receiver 
      operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to test the effectiveness of 
      the SIPS-RC. Second, an independent sample of 100 CHR subjects was recruited 
      based on an identical baseline and follow-up procedures to validate the 
      performance of the SIPS-RC. RESULTS: Four predictors (each based on a subset of 
      SIPS-based items) were used to construct the SIPS-RC: (1) functional decline; (2) 
      positive symptoms (unusual thoughts, suspiciousness); (3) negative symptoms 
      (social anhedonia, expression of emotion, ideational richness); and (4) general 
      symptoms (dysphoric mood). The SIPS-RC showed moderate discrimination of 
      subsequent transition to psychosis with an AUC of 0.744 (p < 0.001). A risk 
      estimate of 25% or higher had around 75% accuracy for predicting psychosis. The 
      personalized risk generated by the SIPS-RC provided a solid estimate of 
      conversion outcomes in the independent validation sample, with an AUC of 0.804 
      [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.662-0.951]. CONCLUSION: The SIPS-RC, which is 
      simple and easy to use, can perform in the same manner as the NAPLS-2 RC in the 
      Chinese clinical population. Such a tool may be used by clinicians to counsel 
      appropriately their patients about clinical monitor v. potential treatment 
      options.
FAU - Zhang, TianHong
AU  - Zhang T
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Xu, LiHua
AU  - Xu L
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Tang, YingYing
AU  - Tang Y
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Li, HuiJun
AU  - Li H
AD  - Department of Psychology, Florida A & M University, Tallahassee, Florida 32307, 
      USA.
FAU - Tang, XiaoChen
AU  - Tang X
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Cui, HuiRu
AU  - Cui H
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Wei, YanYan
AU  - Wei Y
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Wang, Yan
AU  - Wang Y
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Hu, Qiang
AU  - Hu Q
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Liu, XiaoHua
AU  - Liu X
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Li, ChunBo
AU  - Li C
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
FAU - Lu, Zheng
AU  - Lu Z
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
AD  - Department of Psychiatry, Tongji Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, 
      389 Xin Cun Road, Shanghai 200065, China.
FAU - McCarley, Robert W
AU  - McCarley RW
AD  - Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical 
      Center, 75 Fenwood Rd, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
FAU - Seidman, Larry J
AU  - Seidman LJ
AD  - Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical 
      Center, 75 Fenwood Rd, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
FAU - Wang, JiJun
AU  - Wang J
AD  - Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, 
      Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai 200030, PR China.
AD  - Bio-X Institutes, Key Laboratory for the Genetics of Developmental and 
      Neuropsychiatric Disorders (Ministry of Education), Shanghai, PR China.
AD  - CAS Center for Excellence in Brain Science and Intelligence Technology, Chinese 
      Academy of Science, PR China.
CN  - SHARP (ShangHai At Risk for Psychosis) Study Group
LA  - eng
GR  - R21 MH093294/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
PT  - Validation Study
DEP - 20180914
PL  - England
TA  - Psychol Med
JT  - Psychological medicine
JID - 1254142
SB  - IM
MH  - Adolescent
MH  - Adult
MH  - Area Under Curve
MH  - China
MH  - Disease Progression
MH  - Female
MH  - Humans
MH  - Logistic Models
MH  - Male
MH  - Multivariate Analysis
MH  - *Prodromal Symptoms
MH  - Psychotic Disorders/*diagnosis
MH  - ROC Curve
MH  - Reproducibility of Results
MH  - Risk Assessment/methods/*statistics & numerical data
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - Young Adult
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Ultra high risk
OT  - clinical high risk
OT  - conversion
OT  - outcome
OT  - risk factor
OT  - schizophrenia
OT  - transition
EDAT- 2018/09/15 06:00
MHDA- 2020/07/17 06:00
CRDT- 2018/09/15 06:00
PHST- 2018/09/15 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2020/07/17 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2018/09/15 06:00 [entrez]
AID - S0033291718002738 [pii]
AID - 10.1017/S0033291718002738 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Psychol Med. 2019 Sep;49(12):1990-1998. doi: 10.1017/S0033291718002738. Epub 2018 
      Sep 14.