PMID- 30652620 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20191009 LR - 20210109 IS - 2473-4276 (Electronic) IS - 2473-4276 (Linking) VI - 2 DP - 2018 Dec TI - Prediction of Atypical Ductal Hyperplasia Upgrades Through a Machine Learning Approach to Reduce Unnecessary Surgical Excisions. PG - 1-11 LID - 10.1200/CCI.18.00083 [doi] LID - CCI.18.00083 AB - PURPOSE: Surgical excision is currently recommended for all occurrences of atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) found on core needle biopsies for malignancy diagnoses and treatment of lesions. The excision of all ADH lesions may lead to overtreatment, which results in invasive surgeries for benign lesions in many women. A machine learning method to predict ADH upgrade may help clinicians and patients decide whether combined active surveillance and hormonal therapy is a reasonable alternative to surgical excision. METHODS: The following six machine learning models were developed to predict ADH upgrade from core needle biopsy: gradient-boosting trees, random forest, radial support vector machine (SVM), weighted K-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic elastic net, and logistic regression. The study cohort consisted of 128 lesions from 124 women at a tertiary academic care center in New Hampshire who had ADH on core needle biopsy and who underwent an associated surgical excision from 2011 to 2017. RESULTS: The best-performing models were gradient-boosting trees (area under the curve [AUC], 68%; accuracy, 78%) and random forest (AUC, 67%; accuracy, 77%). The top five most important features that determined ADH upgrade were age at biopsy, lesion size, number of biopsies, needle gauge, and personal and family history of breast cancer. Using the random forest model, 98% of all malignancies would have been diagnosed through surgical biopsies, whereas 16% of unnecessary surgeries on benign lesions could have been avoided (ie, 87% sensitivity at 45% specificity). CONCLUSION: These results add to the growing body of support for machine learning models as useful aids for clinicians and patients in decisions about the clinical management of ADH. FAU - Harrington, Lia AU - Harrington L AD - Lia Harrington, Todd MacKenzie, and Saeed Hassanpour, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College, Hanover; Roberta diFlorio-Alexander, Katherine Trinh, and Arief Suriawinata, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH. FAU - diFlorio-Alexander, Roberta AU - diFlorio-Alexander R AD - Lia Harrington, Todd MacKenzie, and Saeed Hassanpour, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College, Hanover; Roberta diFlorio-Alexander, Katherine Trinh, and Arief Suriawinata, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH. FAU - Trinh, Katherine AU - Trinh K AD - Lia Harrington, Todd MacKenzie, and Saeed Hassanpour, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College, Hanover; Roberta diFlorio-Alexander, Katherine Trinh, and Arief Suriawinata, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH. FAU - MacKenzie, Todd AU - MacKenzie T AD - Lia Harrington, Todd MacKenzie, and Saeed Hassanpour, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College, Hanover; Roberta diFlorio-Alexander, Katherine Trinh, and Arief Suriawinata, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH. FAU - Suriawinata, Arief AU - Suriawinata A AD - Lia Harrington, Todd MacKenzie, and Saeed Hassanpour, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College, Hanover; Roberta diFlorio-Alexander, Katherine Trinh, and Arief Suriawinata, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH. FAU - Hassanpour, Saeed AU - Hassanpour S AD - Lia Harrington, Todd MacKenzie, and Saeed Hassanpour, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College, Hanover; Roberta diFlorio-Alexander, Katherine Trinh, and Arief Suriawinata, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH. LA - eng GR - WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't PL - United States TA - JCO Clin Cancer Inform JT - JCO clinical cancer informatics JID - 101708809 SB - IM MH - Carcinoma, Intraductal, Noninfiltrating/*etiology/pathology MH - Cohort Studies MH - Female MH - Humans MH - Hyperplasia/*etiology/pathology MH - Machine Learning/*standards PMC - PMC6874044 COIS- The following represents disclosure information provided by authors of this manuscript. All relationships are considered compensated. Relationships are self-held unless noted. I = Immediate Family Member, Inst = My Institution. Relationships may not relate to the subject matter of this manuscript. For more information about ASCO's conflict of interest policy, please refer to www.asco.org/rwc or ascopubs.org/jco/site/ifc. LIA HARRINGTON: No relationship to disclose ROBERTA DIFLORIO-ALEXANDER: No relationship to disclose KATHERINE TRINH: No relationship to disclose TODD MACKENZIE: No relationship to disclose ARIEF SURIAWINATA: No relationship to disclose SAEED HASSANPOUR: No relationship to disclose EDAT- 2019/01/18 06:00 MHDA- 2019/10/11 06:00 PMCR- 2018/12/18 CRDT- 2019/01/18 06:00 PHST- 2019/01/18 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2019/01/18 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2019/10/11 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2018/12/18 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 1800083 [pii] AID - 10.1200/CCI.18.00083 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - JCO Clin Cancer Inform. 2018 Dec;2:1-11. doi: 10.1200/CCI.18.00083.