PMID- 31112373 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20200803 LR - 20210109 IS - 2045-7634 (Electronic) IS - 2045-7634 (Linking) VI - 8 IP - 8 DP - 2019 Jul TI - Nomograms for predicting long-term overall survival and cancer-specific survival in lip squamous cell carcinoma: A population-based study. PG - 4032-4042 LID - 10.1002/cam4.2260 [doi] AB - BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to establish and validate two nomograms for predicting the long-term overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in lip squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). METHODS: This study selected 4175 patients who were diagnosed with LSCC between 2004 and 2015 in the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database. The patients were allocated randomly to a training cohort and validation cohort. Variables were selected using a backward stepwise method in a Cox regression model. Based on the predictive model with the identified prognostic factors, nomograms were established to predict the 3-, 5-, and 8-year survival OS and CSS rates of LSCC patients. The accuracy of the nomograms was evaluated based on the consistency index (C-index), while their prediction accuracy was evaluated using calibration plots. Decision curve analyses (DCAs) were used to evaluate the performance of our survival model. RESULTS: The multivariate analyses demonstrated that age at diagnosis, marital status, sex, race, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, surgery status, and radiotherapy status were risk factors for both OS and CSS. The C-index, area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration plots demonstrated the good performance of the nomograms. DCAs of both nomograms further showed that they exhibited good 3-, 5-, and 8-year net benefits. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated LSCC prognosis nomograms for OS and CSS for the first time. These nomograms can be valuable tools for clinical practice when clinicians are helping patients to understand their survival risk for the next 3, 5, and 8 years. CI - (c) 2019 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. FAU - Hu, Chuan-Yu AU - Hu CY AD - Clinical Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China. AD - Stomatology Center, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China. FAU - Pan, Zhen-Yu AU - Pan ZY AD - Clinical Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China. AD - School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China. AD - Department of Pharmacy, The Affiliated Children Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China. FAU - Yang, Jin AU - Yang J AD - Clinical Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China. AD - School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China. FAU - Chu, Xiu-Hong AU - Chu XH AD - Department of Nursing, Yeda Hospital, Yantai, China. FAU - Zhang, Jun AU - Zhang J AD - Clinical Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China. AD - School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China. AD - Department of Orthopaedics, Baoji Municipal Central Hospital, Baoji, China. FAU - Tao, Xue-Jin AU - Tao XJ AD - Stomatology Center, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China. FAU - Chen, Wei-Min AU - Chen WM AD - Stomatology Center, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China. FAU - Li, Yuan-Jie AU - Li YJ AD - Department of Human Anatomy, Histology and Embryology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China. FAU - Lyu, Jun AU - Lyu J AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-2237-8771 AD - Clinical Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China. AD - School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't DEP - 20190521 PL - United States TA - Cancer Med JT - Cancer medicine JID - 101595310 SB - IM MH - Aged MH - Carcinoma, Squamous Cell/*epidemiology/mortality/pathology MH - Female MH - Humans MH - Lip Neoplasms/*epidemiology/mortality/pathology MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - Population Surveillance MH - Prognosis MH - Proportional Hazards Models MH - ROC Curve MH - SEER Program PMC - PMC6639254 OTO - NOTNLM OT - SEER OT - cancer-specific survival OT - lip squamous cell carcinoma OT - nomogram OT - overall survival COIS- The author reports no conflict of interest in this work. EDAT- 2019/05/22 06:00 MHDA- 2020/08/04 06:00 PMCR- 2019/05/21 CRDT- 2019/05/22 06:00 PHST- 2019/01/24 00:00 [received] PHST- 2019/03/30 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2019/05/06 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2019/05/22 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2020/08/04 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2019/05/22 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2019/05/21 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - CAM42260 [pii] AID - 10.1002/cam4.2260 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Cancer Med. 2019 Jul;8(8):4032-4042. doi: 10.1002/cam4.2260. Epub 2019 May 21.