PMID- 31331188
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20200106
LR  - 20200225
IS  - 1526-2359 (Electronic)
IS  - 1073-2748 (Print)
IS  - 1073-2748 (Linking)
VI  - 26
IP  - 1
DP  - 2019 Jan-Dec
TI  - Projecting Cancer Incidence for 2025 in the 2 Largest Populated Cities in 
      Vietnam.
PG  - 1073274819865274
LID - 10.1177/1073274819865274 [doi]
LID - 1073274819865274
AB  - The population size and projected demographics of Vietnam's 2 largest cities, Ho 
      Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Hanoi, will change dramatically over the next decade. 
      Demographic changes in an aging population coupled with income growth and changes 
      in lifestyle will result in a very different distribution of common cancers in 
      the future. The study aimed to project the number of cancer incidence in the 2 
      largest populated cities in Vietnam for the year 2025. Cancer incidence data from 
      2004 to 2013 collected from population-based cancer registries in these 2 cities 
      were provided by Vietnam National Cancer Institute. Incidence cases in 2013 and 
      the previous decades average annual percent changes of age-standardized cancer 
      incidence rates combined with expected population growth were modeled to project 
      cancer incidence for each cancer site by gender to 2025. A substantial double in 
      cancer incidence from 2013 to 2025 resulted from a growing and aging population 
      in HCMC and Hanoi. Lung, colorectum, breast, thyroid, and liver cancers, which 
      represent 67% of the overall cancer burden, are projected to become the leading 
      cancer diagnoses by 2025 regardless of genders. For men, the leading cancer sites 
      in 2025 are predicted to be lung, colorectum, esophagus, liver, and pharynx 
      cancer, and among women, they are expected to be breast, thyroid, colorectum, 
      lung, and cervical cancer. We projected an epidemiological transition from 
      infectious-associated cancers to a high burden of cancers that have mainly been 
      attributed to lifestyle in both cities. We predicted that with 16.9% growth in 
      the overall population and dramatic aging with these 2 urban centers, the burdens 
      of cancer incidence will increase sharply in both cities over the next decades. 
      Data on projections of cancer incidence in both cities provide useful insights 
      for directing appropriate policies and cancer control programs in Vietnam.
FAU - Nguyen, Sang Minh
AU  - Nguyen SM
AD  - 1 Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University School 
      of Medicine, Nashville, TN, USA.
FAU - Deppen, Stephen
AU  - Deppen S
AD  - 2 Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center, Tennessee Valley Healthcare 
      System, Nashville, TN, USA.
AD  - 3 Department of Thoracic Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, 
      Nashville, TN, USA.
FAU - Nguyen, Giang Huong
AU  - Nguyen GH
AD  - 4 National Cancer Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam.
FAU - Pham, Dung Xuan
AU  - Pham DX
AD  - 5 Ho Chi Minh City Oncological Hospital, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
FAU - Bui, Tung Duc
AU  - Bui TD
AD  - 6 Ho Chi Minh Cancer Registry, Ho Chi Minh City Oncological Hospital, Ho Chi Minh 
      City, Vietnam.
FAU - Tran, Thuan Van
AU  - Tran TV
AD  - 5 Ho Chi Minh City Oncological Hospital, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
AD  - 7 Vietnam National Cancer Institute, Hanoi, Vietnam.
LA  - eng
GR  - P20 CA210300/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States
PT  - Journal Article
PL  - United States
TA  - Cancer Control
JT  - Cancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer Center
JID - 9438457
SB  - IM
MH  - Adolescent
MH  - Adult
MH  - Age Distribution
MH  - Aged
MH  - Aged, 80 and over
MH  - Aging
MH  - Child
MH  - Child, Preschool
MH  - Cities/epidemiology/statistics & numerical data
MH  - Female
MH  - *Forecasting
MH  - Humans
MH  - Incidence
MH  - Infant
MH  - Infant, Newborn
MH  - Linear Models
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Neoplasms/*epidemiology
MH  - Population Dynamics/*trends
MH  - Registries/statistics & numerical data
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - Vietnam/epidemiology
MH  - Young Adult
PMC - PMC6651684
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - age-standardized cancer incidence rates
OT  - cancer incidence
OT  - demographic shifts
OT  - projections; average annual percent changes
COIS- Declaration of Conflicting Interests: The author(s) declared no potential 
      conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or 
      publication of this article.
EDAT- 2019/07/25 06:00
MHDA- 2020/01/07 06:00
PMCR- 2019/07/23
CRDT- 2019/07/24 06:00
PHST- 2019/07/24 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2019/07/25 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2020/01/07 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2019/07/23 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 10.1177_1073274819865274 [pii]
AID - 10.1177/1073274819865274 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Cancer Control. 2019 Jan-Dec;26(1):1073274819865274. doi: 
      10.1177/1073274819865274.