PMID- 31462940
OWN - NLM
STAT- PubMed-not-MEDLINE
LR  - 20220410
IS  - 1878-5077 (Print)
IS  - 1878-5085 (Electronic)
IS  - 1878-5077 (Linking)
VI  - 10
IP  - 3
DP  - 2019 Sep
TI  - Nomogram prediction for the 3-year risk of type 2 diabetes in healthy mainland 
      China residents.
PG  - 227-237
LID - 10.1007/s13167-019-00181-2 [doi]
AB  - AIMS: To develop a precise personalized type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) 
      prediction model by cost-effective and readily available parameters in a Central 
      China population. METHODS: A 3-year cohort study was performed on 5557 
      nondiabetic individuals who underwent annual physical examination as the training 
      cohort, and a subsequent validation cohort of 1870 individuals was conducted 
      using the same procedures. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed, 
      and a simple nomogram was constructed via the stepwise method. Receiver operating 
      characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analyses were performed by 500 
      bootstrap resamplings to assess the determination and clinical value of the 
      nomogram, respectively. We also estimated the optimal cutoff values of each risk 
      factor for T2DM prediction. RESULTS: The 3-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was 
      10.71%. We developed simple nomograms that predict the risk of T2DM for females 
      and males by using the parameters of age, BMI, fasting blood glucose (FBG), 
      low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol 
      (HDLc), and triglycerides (TG). In the training cohort, the area under the ROC 
      curve (AUC) showed statistical accuracy (AUC = 0.863 for female, AUC = 0.751 for 
      male), and similar results were shown in the subsequent validation cohort 
      (AUC = 0.847 for female, AUC = 0.755 for male). Decision curve analysis 
      demonstrated the clinical value of this nomogram. To optimally predict the risk 
      of T2DM, the cutoff values of age, BMI, FBG, systolic blood pressure, diastolic 
      blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDLc, HDLc, and TG were 47.5 and 46.5 years, 
      22.9 and 23.7 kg/m(2), 5.1 and 5.4 mmol/L, 118 and 123 mmHg, 71 and 85 mmHg, 5.06 
      and 4.94 mmol/L, 2.63 and 2.54 mmol/L, 1.53 and 1.34 mmol/L, and 1.07 and 
      1.65 mmol/L for females and males, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our nomogram can be 
      used as a simple, plausible, affordable, and widely implementable tool to predict 
      a personalized risk of T2DM for Central Chinese residents. The successful 
      identification of at-risk individuals and intervention at an early stage can 
      provide advanced strategies from a predictive, preventive, and personalized 
      medicine perspective.
FAU - Wang, Kun
AU  - Wang K
AD  - 1Department of Geriatrics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong 
      University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430022 China. ISNI: 0000 0004 0368 
      7223. GRID: grid.33199.31
FAU - Gong, Meihua
AU  - Gong M
AD  - Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Third People Hospital of Jimo, Jimo, 
      266000 Shandong China.
FAU - Xie, Songpu
AU  - Xie S
AD  - 1Department of Geriatrics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong 
      University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430022 China. ISNI: 0000 0004 0368 
      7223. GRID: grid.33199.31
FAU - Zhang, Meng
AU  - Zhang M
AD  - 1Department of Geriatrics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong 
      University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430022 China. ISNI: 0000 0004 0368 
      7223. GRID: grid.33199.31
FAU - Zheng, Huabo
AU  - Zheng H
AD  - 1Department of Geriatrics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong 
      University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430022 China. ISNI: 0000 0004 0368 
      7223. GRID: grid.33199.31
FAU - Zhao, XiaoFang
AU  - Zhao X
AD  - 1Department of Geriatrics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong 
      University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430022 China. ISNI: 0000 0004 0368 
      7223. GRID: grid.33199.31
FAU - Liu, Chengyun
AU  - Liu C
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-1610-5929
AD  - 1Department of Geriatrics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong 
      University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430022 China. ISNI: 0000 0004 0368 
      7223. GRID: grid.33199.31
AD  - 3The First People's Hospital of Jiangxia District, Wuhan City & Union Jiangnan 
      Hospital, HUST, Wuhan, 430200 China. ISNI: 0000 0004 0368 7223. GRID: 
      grid.33199.31
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20190806
PL  - Switzerland
TA  - EPMA J
JT  - The EPMA journal
JID - 101517307
PMC - PMC6695459
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Nomogram
OT  - Predictive preventive personalized medicine
OT  - Risk factor
OT  - Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM)
COIS- Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
EDAT- 2019/08/30 06:00
MHDA- 2019/08/30 06:01
PMCR- 2019/08/06
CRDT- 2019/08/30 06:00
PHST- 2019/04/27 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2019/07/17 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2019/08/30 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2019/08/30 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2019/08/30 06:01 [medline]
PHST- 2019/08/06 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 181 [pii]
AID - 10.1007/s13167-019-00181-2 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - EPMA J. 2019 Aug 6;10(3):227-237. doi: 10.1007/s13167-019-00181-2. eCollection 
      2019 Sep.