PMID- 31888689
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20200623
LR  - 20231027
IS  - 1478-7954 (Electronic)
IS  - 1478-7954 (Linking)
VI  - 17
IP  - 1
DP  - 2019 Dec 30
TI  - Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and 
      physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.
PG  - 20
LID - 10.1186/s12963-019-0200-1 [doi]
LID - 20
AB  - BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the 
      prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical 
      activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus 
      (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model 
      was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor 
      status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally 
      representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached 
      targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention 
      scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention 
      baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% 
      in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing 
      obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence 
      by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the 
      rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 
      0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical 
      inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence 
      by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and 
      related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying 
      intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 
      4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM 
      incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions 
      could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by 
      introducing physical activity as an intervention.
FAU - Awad, Susanne F
AU  - Awad SF
AD  - Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Qatar 
      Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar. 
      sua2006@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
AD  - Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, 
      UK. sua2006@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
FAU - O'Flaherty, Martin
AU  - O'Flaherty M
AD  - Division of Public Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
FAU - El-Nahas, Katie G
AU  - El-Nahas KG
AD  - Qatar Diabetes Association, Doha, Qatar.
FAU - Al-Hamaq, Abdulla O
AU  - Al-Hamaq AO
AD  - Qatar Diabetes Association, Doha, Qatar.
FAU - Critchley, Julia A
AU  - Critchley JA
AD  - Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, 
      UK.
FAU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J
AU  - Abu-Raddad LJ
AD  - Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Qatar 
      Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar. 
      lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
AD  - Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell 
      University, New York, NY, USA. lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
AD  - College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar. 
      lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20191230
PL  - England
TA  - Popul Health Metr
JT  - Population health metrics
JID - 101178411
SB  - IM
MH  - Adult
MH  - Causality
MH  - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology/*prevention & control
MH  - Female
MH  - Health Behavior
MH  - Health Promotion/*statistics & numerical data
MH  - Humans
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - Models, Theoretical
MH  - Obesity/epidemiology/*prevention & control
MH  - Qatar
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - *Sedentary Behavior
MH  - Smoking Prevention/*statistics & numerical data
PMC - PMC6937668
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Mathematical modeling
OT  - Middle East and North Africa
OT  - Noncommunicable disease
OT  - Obesity
OT  - Prevention
OT  - Risk factors
OT  - type 2 diabetes mellitus
COIS- The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
EDAT- 2020/01/01 06:00
MHDA- 2020/06/24 06:00
PMCR- 2019/12/30
CRDT- 2020/01/01 06:00
PHST- 2018/07/15 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2019/11/21 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2020/01/01 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2020/01/01 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2020/06/24 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2019/12/30 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 10.1186/s12963-019-0200-1 [pii]
AID - 200 [pii]
AID - 10.1186/s12963-019-0200-1 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - Popul Health Metr. 2019 Dec 30;17(1):20. doi: 10.1186/s12963-019-0200-1.