PMID- 32061067
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20210106
LR  - 20210106
IS  - 1735-3947 (Electronic)
IS  - 1029-2977 (Linking)
VI  - 23
IP  - 2
DP  - 2020 Feb 1
TI  - Improved Population Health in Iran from 1979 to 2019; Decreasing Mortality Rates 
      and Increasing Life Expectancy.
PG  - 61-68
AB  - BACKGROUND: In this study, we seek to evaluate the population health improvements 
      during the previous four decades in Iran. We have estimated the levels and trends 
      of child and adult mortality in addition to life expectancy from 1979 to 2019 at 
      national and sub-national levels using all the available data. METHODS: In this 
      study, we used data from National and Sub-National Burden of Diseases study and 
      employed Bayesian Averaging Model (BAM) to predict mortality rates and life 
      expectancy from 1979 to 2019. By including all available data sources of death 
      information of Iran, including national level data from the Institute for Health 
      Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), national censuses, Demographic and Health Survey 
      (DHS), and Death Registration System (DRS) and using Spatio-Temporal and Gaussian 
      Process Regression (ST-GPR) models, we estimated mortality rates and life 
      expectancy from 1990 to 2015. We also used a BAM to project our desired indices 
      until 2019. RESULTS: Both child and adult mortality rates decreased dramatically 
      over the period. At the national level in Iran, in 2019, child mortality rate 
      (deaths per 1000 livebirths), was 16.0 (95%UI: 13.0-19.6), adult mortality rates 
      [probability of death (%)] for females and males were 6.1 (5.4-6.8) and 11.5 
      (10.3-12.8), respectively. Also, life expectancy values for females and males 
      were 81.6 (80.7-82.2) and 76.1 (75.3-76.6), respectively. The results were 
      consistent for both sexes. Despite the total narrowing gaps among provinces, a 
      difference can still be observed particularly for the border provinces regarding 
      child mortality rates. However, the difference in the other measures are 
      inconsiderable. From 1979 to 2019, the overall change percent in child mortality 
      rate, adult mortality rate for females and males and life expectancy for females 
      and males were -86.3% (-89.0%--83.1%), -52.5% (-60.9%--42.9%), -48.7% (-56.9%- 
      -39.6%), 25.3% (20.8%-31.5%), and 31.3% (25.5%-41.3%), respectively. CONCLUSION: 
      This study provides an overview of the previous 40 years of mortality rates 
      (child and adult) and life expectancy. The provided framework of national and 
      sub-national evaluation can be used by researchers to continue the path of 
      providing information for prioritization and evaluation of programs and also 
      performing cost-effectiveness analysis for proposing efficient strategies to 
      policy makers.
CI  - (c) 2020 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms 
      of the Creative Commons Attribution License 
      (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, 
      distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is 
      properly cited.
FAU - Ebrahimi, Narges
AU  - Ebrahimi N
AD  - Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism 
      Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 
      Iran.
FAU - Mehdipour, Parinaz
AU  - Mehdipour P
AD  - Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism 
      Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 
      Iran.
FAU - Mohebi, Farnam
AU  - Mohebi F
AD  - Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism 
      Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 
      Iran.
FAU - Ghanbari, Ali
AU  - Ghanbari A
AD  - Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism 
      Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 
      Iran.
FAU - Azmin, Mehrdad
AU  - Azmin M
AD  - Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism 
      Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 
      Iran.
FAU - Farzadfar, Farshad
AU  - Farzadfar F
AD  - Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism 
      Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 
      Iran.
AD  - Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism 
      Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20200201
PL  - Iran
TA  - Arch Iran Med
JT  - Archives of Iranian medicine
JID - 100889644
SB  - IM
MH  - Adolescent
MH  - Adult
MH  - Age Distribution
MH  - Aged
MH  - Aged, 80 and over
MH  - Bayes Theorem
MH  - Child
MH  - Child, Preschool
MH  - Female
MH  - Health Surveys
MH  - Humans
MH  - Infant
MH  - Infant, Newborn
MH  - Iran/epidemiology
MH  - *Life Expectancy
MH  - Male
MH  - Middle Aged
MH  - *Mortality
MH  - *Population Health
MH  - Sex Distribution
MH  - Spatio-Temporal Analysis
MH  - Young Adult
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Adult mortality
OT  - Child mortality
OT  - Iran
OT  - Life expectancy
EDAT- 2020/02/16 06:00
MHDA- 2021/01/07 06:00
CRDT- 2020/02/16 06:00
PHST- 2019/02/05 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2019/10/21 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2020/02/16 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2020/02/16 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2021/01/07 06:00 [medline]
AID - S1029-2977-23(02)061-0 [pii]
PST - epublish
SO  - Arch Iran Med. 2020 Feb 1;23(2):61-68.