PMID- 32173614 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20200409 LR - 20200409 IS - 1743-9159 (Electronic) IS - 1743-9159 (Linking) VI - 76 DP - 2020 Apr TI - Development and validation of nomograms to accurately predict risk of recurrence for patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma: Cohort study. PG - 163-170 LID - S1743-9191(20)30222-3 [pii] LID - 10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.03.010 [doi] AB - BACKGROUND: Recurrence is still major obstacle to long-term survival in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram to precisely predict recurrence probability in patients with LSCC. METHODS: A total of 283 consecutive patients with LSCC received curative-intend surgery between 2011 and 2014 at were enrolled in this study. Subsequently, 283 LSCC patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (N = 171) and a validation cohort (N = 112) in a 3:2 ratio. According to the results of multivariable Cox regression analysis in the training cohort, we developed a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by calibration curve and concordance index (C-index), and compared with TNM stage system by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to estimate clinical value of our nomogram. RESULTS: Six independent factors rooted in multivariable analysis of the training cohort to predict recurrence were age, tumor site, smoking, alcohol, N stage and hemoglobin, which were all integrated into the nomogram. The calibration curve for the probability of recurrence presented that the nomogram-based predictions were in good correspondence with actual observations. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.81 (0.75-0.88), and the area under curve (AUC) of nomogram in predicting recurrence free survival (RFS) was 0.894, which were significantly better than traditional TNM stage. Decision curve analysis further affirmed that our nomogram had a larger net benefit than TNM stage. The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: A risk prediction nomogram for patients with LSCC, incorporating readily assessable clinicopathologic variables, generates more accurate estimations of the recurrence probability when compared TNM stage alone, but still needs additional data before being used in clinical implications. CI - Copyright (c) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. FAU - Cui, Jie AU - Cui J AD - Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. Electronic address: cuijir8905@163.com. FAU - Wang, Liping AU - Wang L AD - Department of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Haikou, 570102, Hainan Province, PR China. Electronic address: wangliping813@163.com. FAU - Tan, Guangmou AU - Tan G AD - Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. Electronic address: sumstgm@163.com. FAU - Chen, Weiquan AU - Chen W AD - Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. Electronic address: chenweiquan45@sina.com. FAU - He, Guangmin AU - He G AD - Department of Ultrasound, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. Electronic address: 764604608@qq.com. FAU - Huang, Haiyan AU - Huang H AD - Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. Electronic address: huanghaiyan86123@163.com. FAU - Chen, Zhen AU - Chen Z AD - Department of Intensive Care Unit, Shunde Hospital, Southern Medical University (The First People's Hospital of Shunde), Foshan, 528308, Guangdong Province, PR China. Electronic address: jeanyz@foxmail.com. FAU - Yang, Hong AU - Yang H AD - Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. Electronic address: hong-yang01@163.com. FAU - Chen, Jie AU - Chen J AD - Department of Head Neck Surgery, Hunan Province Cancer Hospital and the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha, 410000, Hunan Province, PR China. Electronic address: cj1959@126.com. FAU - Liu, Genglong AU - Liu G AD - Department of Pathology, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. Electronic address: lglong3@mail2.sysu.edu.cn. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Validation Study DEP - 20200312 PL - United States TA - Int J Surg JT - International journal of surgery (London, England) JID - 101228232 SB - IM CIN - Int J Surg. 2020 Jun;78:26-27. PMID: 32304895 MH - Adult MH - Aged MH - Area Under Curve MH - Calibration MH - Carcinoma, Squamous Cell/pathology MH - Cohort Studies MH - Female MH - Humans MH - *Laryngeal Neoplasms/diagnosis/surgery MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - *Neoplasm Recurrence, Local MH - *Nomograms MH - Prognosis MH - ROC Curve MH - Regression Analysis MH - Retrospective Studies OTO - NOTNLM OT - Laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma OT - Nomogram OT - Overall survival OT - Prediction OT - Surgical treatment COIS- Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest. EDAT- 2020/03/17 06:00 MHDA- 2020/04/10 06:00 CRDT- 2020/03/17 06:00 PHST- 2019/12/21 00:00 [received] PHST- 2020/02/20 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2020/03/05 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2020/03/17 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2020/04/10 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2020/03/17 06:00 [entrez] AID - S1743-9191(20)30222-3 [pii] AID - 10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.03.010 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Int J Surg. 2020 Apr;76:163-170. doi: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.03.010. Epub 2020 Mar 12.