PMID- 32274974 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20200925 LR - 20210410 IS - 1943-4936 (Electronic) IS - 1040-6387 (Print) IS - 1040-6387 (Linking) VI - 32 IP - 3 DP - 2020 May TI - Prediction of seasonal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in the U.S. swine industry. PG - 394-400 LID - 10.1177/1040638720912406 [doi] AB - We developed a model to predict the cyclic pattern of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-rtPCR) from 4 major swine-centric veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) in the United States and to use historical data to forecast the upcoming year's weekly percentage of positive submissions and issue outbreak signals when the pattern of detection was not as expected. Standardized submission data and test results were used. Historical data (2015-2017) composed of the weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions were used to fit a cyclic robust regression model. The findings were used to forecast the expected weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions, with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for 2018. During 2018, the proportion of PRRSV-positive submissions crossed 95% CI boundaries at week 2, 14-25, and 48. The relatively higher detection on week 2 and 48 were mostly from submissions containing samples from wean-to-market pigs, and for week 14-25 originated mostly from samples from adult/sow farms. There was a recurring yearly pattern of detection, wherein an increased proportion of PRRSV RNA detection in submissions originating from wean-to-finish farms was followed by increased detection in samples from adult/sow farms. Results from the model described herein confirm the seasonal cyclic pattern of PRRSV detection using test results consolidated from 4 VDLs. Wave crests occurred consistently during winter, and wave troughs occurred consistently during the summer months. Our model was able to correctly identify statistically significant outbreak signals in PRRSV RNA detection at 3 instances during 2018. FAU - Trevisan, Giovani AU - Trevisan G AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-4980-526X AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Linhares, Leticia C M AU - Linhares LCM AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-5305-7981 AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Crim, Bret AU - Crim B AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Dubey, Poonam AU - Dubey P AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Schwartz, Kent J AU - Schwartz KJ AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Burrough, Eric R AU - Burrough ER AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-4747-9189 AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Wang, Chong AU - Wang C AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Main, Rodger G AU - Main RG AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Sundberg, Paul AU - Sundberg P AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Thurn, Mary AU - Thurn M AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Lages, Paulo T F AU - Lages PTF AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Corzo, Cesar A AU - Corzo CA AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Torrison, Jerry AU - Torrison J AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Henningson, Jamie AU - Henningson J AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Herrman, Eric AU - Herrman E AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Hanzlicek, Gregg A AU - Hanzlicek GA AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Raghavan, Ram AU - Raghavan R AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Marthaler, Douglas AU - Marthaler D AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Greseth, Jon AU - Greseth J AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Clement, Travis AU - Clement T AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Christopher-Hennings, Jane AU - Christopher-Hennings J AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Muscatello, David AU - Muscatello D AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). FAU - Linhares, Daniel C L AU - Linhares DCL AD - Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares). AD - Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg). AD - Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison). AD - College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler). AD - Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings). AD - School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello). LA - eng PT - Journal Article DEP - 20200410 PL - United States TA - J Vet Diagn Invest JT - Journal of veterinary diagnostic investigation : official publication of the American Association of Veterinary Laboratory Diagnosticians, Inc JID - 9011490 RN - 0 (RNA, Viral) SB - IM MH - Animals MH - Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary MH - Polymerase Chain Reaction/veterinary MH - Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome/*epidemiology/virology MH - Porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus/*physiology MH - RNA, Viral/analysis MH - Seasons MH - Swine MH - United States/epidemiology PMC - PMC7377621 OTO - NOTNLM OT - PRRSV OT - cyclic OT - outbreak signal OT - prediction OT - swine pathogens OT - veterinary diagnostic laboratories COIS- Declaration of conflicting interests: The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. EDAT- 2020/04/11 06:00 MHDA- 2020/09/26 06:00 PMCR- 2021/04/10 CRDT- 2020/04/11 06:00 PHST- 2020/04/11 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2020/09/26 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2020/04/11 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2021/04/10 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 10.1177_1040638720912406 [pii] AID - 10.1177/1040638720912406 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - J Vet Diagn Invest. 2020 May;32(3):394-400. doi: 10.1177/1040638720912406. Epub 2020 Apr 10.