PMID- 32310958 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20200714 LR - 20231103 IS - 1553-7358 (Electronic) IS - 1553-734X (Print) IS - 1553-734X (Linking) VI - 16 IP - 4 DP - 2020 Apr TI - Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response. PG - e1007743 LID - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007743 [doi] LID - e1007743 AB - Recent years have seen rising incidence of dengue and large outbreaks of Zika and chikungunya, which are all caused by viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In most settings, the primary intervention against Aedes-transmitted viruses is vector control, such as indoor, ultra-low volume (ULV) spraying. Targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) has the potential to more effectively impact Aedes-borne diseases, but its implementation requires careful planning and evaluation. The optimal time to deploy these interventions and their relative epidemiological effects are, however, not well understood. We used an agent-based model of dengue virus transmission calibrated to data from Iquitos, Peru to assess the epidemiological effects of these interventions under differing strategies for deploying them. Specifically, we compared strategies where spray application was initiated when incidence rose above a threshold based on incidence in recent years to strategies where spraying occurred at the same time(s) each year. In the absence of spraying, the model predicted 361,000 infections [inter-quartile range (IQR): 347,000-383,000] in the period 2000-2010. The ULV strategy with the fewest median infections was spraying twice yearly, in March and October, which led to a median of 172,000 infections [IQR: 158,000-183,000], a 52% reduction from baseline. Compared to spraying once yearly in September, the best threshold-based strategy utilizing ULV had fewer median infections (254,000 vs. 261,000), but required more spraying (351 vs. 274 days). For TIRS, the best strategy was threshold-based, which led to the fewest infections of all strategies tested (9,900; [IQR: 8,720-11,400], a 94% reduction), and required fewer days spraying than the equivalent ULV strategy (280). Although spraying twice each year is likely to avert the most infections, our results indicate that a threshold-based strategy can become an alternative to better balance the translation of spraying effort into impact, particularly if used with a residual insecticide. FAU - Cavany, Sean M AU - Cavany SM AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-2559-797X AD - Department of Biological Sciences & Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America. FAU - Espana, Guido AU - Espana G AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-9915-8056 AD - Department of Biological Sciences & Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America. FAU - Lloyd, Alun L AU - Lloyd AL AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-6389-6321 AD - Department of Mathematics & Biomathematics Graduate Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America. FAU - Waller, Lance A AU - Waller LA AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-5002-8886 AD - Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America. FAU - Kitron, Uriel AU - Kitron U AD - Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America. FAU - Astete, Helvio AU - Astete H AD - U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit Six, Lima, Peru. FAU - Elson, William H AU - Elson WH AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-8630-1378 AD - Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, United States of America. FAU - Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M AU - Vazquez-Prokopec GM AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-0710-270X AD - Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America. FAU - Scott, Thomas W AU - Scott TW AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-2947-8123 AD - Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, United States of America. FAU - Morrison, Amy C AU - Morrison AC AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-6224-5984 AD - Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, United States of America. FAU - Reiner, Robert C Jr AU - Reiner RC Jr AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-1056-7919 AD - Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America. FAU - Perkins, T Alex AU - Perkins TA AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-7518-4014 AD - Department of Biological Sciences & Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America. LA - eng GR - P01 AI098670/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural DEP - 20200420 PL - United States TA - PLoS Comput Biol JT - PLoS computational biology JID - 101238922 RN - 0 (Insecticides) SB - IM MH - Aedes/physiology MH - Animals MH - Computational Biology/*methods MH - Computer Simulation MH - Dengue/epidemiology/*prevention & control/transmission MH - Disease Outbreaks MH - Humans MH - Incidence MH - Insecticides MH - Models, Theoretical MH - Mosquito Control/*methods MH - Mosquito Vectors MH - Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology/prevention & control/transmission PMC - PMC7200023 COIS- The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. EDAT- 2020/04/21 06:00 MHDA- 2020/07/15 06:00 PMCR- 2020/04/20 CRDT- 2020/04/21 06:00 PHST- 2019/10/03 00:00 [received] PHST- 2020/02/24 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2020/05/05 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2020/04/21 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2020/07/15 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2020/04/21 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2020/04/20 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - PCOMPBIOL-D-19-01721 [pii] AID - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007743 [doi] PST - epublish SO - PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Apr 20;16(4):e1007743. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007743. eCollection 2020 Apr.