PMID- 32409590 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20210907 LR - 20221207 IS - 1468-3288 (Electronic) IS - 0017-5749 (Linking) VI - 70 IP - 2 DP - 2021 Feb TI - Deciphering the complex interplay between pancreatic cancer, diabetes mellitus subtypes and obesity/BMI through causal inference and mediation analyses. PG - 319-329 LID - 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-319990 [doi] AB - OBJECTIVES: To characterise the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) subtypes (new-onset T2DM (NODM) or long-standing T2DM (LSDM)) and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk, to explore the direction of causation through Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis and to assess the mediation role of body mass index (BMI). DESIGN: Information about T2DM and related factors was collected from 2018 PC cases and 1540 controls from the PanGenEU (European Study into Digestive Illnesses and Genetics) study. A subset of PC cases and controls had glycated haemoglobin, C-peptide and genotype data. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to derive ORs and 95% CIs. T2DM and PC-related single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) were used as instrumental variables (IVs) in bidirectional MR analysis to test for two-way causal associations between PC, NODM and LSDM. Indirect and direct effects of the BMI-T2DM-PC association were further explored using mediation analysis. RESULTS: T2DM was associated with an increased PC risk when compared with non-T2DM (OR=2.50; 95% CI: 2.05 to 3.05), the risk being greater for NODM (OR=6.39; 95% CI: 4.18 to 9.78) and insulin users (OR=3.69; 95% CI: 2.80 to 4.86). The causal association between T2DM (57-SNP IV) and PC was not statistically significant (OR(LSDM)=1.08, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.29, OR(NODM)=1.06, 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.17). In contrast, there was a causal association between PC (40-SNP IV) and NODM (OR=2.85; 95% CI: 2.04 to 3.98), although genetic pleiotropy was present (MR-Egger: p value=0.03). Potential mediating effects of BMI (125-SNPs as IV), particularly in terms of weight loss, were evidenced on the NODM-PC association (indirect effect for BMI in previous years=0.55). CONCLUSION: Findings of this study do not support a causal effect of LSDM on PC, but suggest that PC causes NODM. The interplay between obesity, PC and T2DM is complex. CI - (c) Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. FAU - Molina-Montes, Esther AU - Molina-Montes E AD - Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Group, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Madrid, Spain. AD - CIBERONC, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Coscia, Claudia AU - Coscia C AD - Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Group, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Madrid, Spain. AD - CIBERONC, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Gomez-Rubio, Paulina AU - Gomez-Rubio P AD - Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Group, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Madrid, Spain. AD - CIBERONC, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Fernandez, Alba AU - Fernandez A AD - Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Group, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Boenink, Rianne AU - Boenink R AD - Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Group, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Rava, Marta AU - Rava M AD - Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Group, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Marquez, Mirari AU - Marquez M AD - Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Group, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Madrid, Spain. AD - CIBERONC, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Molero, Xavier AU - Molero X AD - Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona, Spain. AD - Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, CIBEREHD, Barcelona, Spain. FAU - Lohr, Matthias AU - Lohr M AD - Gastrocentrum, Karolinska Institutet and University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden. FAU - Sharp, Linda AU - Sharp L AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-9515-1722 AD - National Cancer Registry Ireland, Cork, Ireland. AD - HRB Clinical Research Facility, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. FAU - Michalski, Christoph W AU - Michalski CW AD - Department of Surgery, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. AD - Department of Visceral, Vascular and Endocrine Surgery, Martin-Luther-Universitat Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany. FAU - Farre, Antoni AU - Farre A AD - Department of Gastroenterology and Clinical Biochemistry, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain. FAU - Perea, Jose AU - Perea J AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-5522-8844 AD - Department of Surgery, Hospital 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain. AD - Department of Surgery, Health Research Institute, Fundacion Jimenez Diaz, Madrid, Spain. FAU - O'Rorke, Michael AU - O'Rorke M AD - Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK. AD - College of Public Health, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, USA. FAU - Greenhalf, William AU - Greenhalf W AD - Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, Liverpool Cancer Research-UK Centre, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK. FAU - Iglesias, Mar AU - Iglesias M AD - CIBERONC, Madrid, Spain. AD - Hospital del Mar-Parc de Salut Mar, Barcelona, Spain. FAU - Tardon, Adonina AU - Tardon A AD - Department of Medicine, Instituto Universitario de Oncologia del Principado de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain. AD - CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain. FAU - Gress, Thomas M AU - Gress TM AD - Department of Gastroenterology, University Hospital of Giessen and Marburg, Marburg, Germany. FAU - Barbera, Victor M AU - Barbera VM AD - Molecular Genetics Laboratory, University General Hospital of Elche, Elche, Spain. FAU - Crnogorac-Jurcevic, Tatjana AU - Crnogorac-Jurcevic T AD - Barts Cancer Institute, Centre for Molecular Oncology, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK. FAU - Munoz-Bellvis, Luis AU - Munoz-Bellvis L AD - Department of Surgery, Hospital Universitario de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain. FAU - Dominguez-Munoz, J Enrique AU - Dominguez-Munoz JE AD - Department of Gastroenterology, University Hospital of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain. FAU - Renz, Harald AU - Renz H AD - Institute of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiochemistry, Phillips University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany. FAU - Balcells, Joaquim AU - Balcells J AD - Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, CIBEREHD, Barcelona, Spain. AD - Exocrine Pancreas Research Unit, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona, Spain. FAU - Costello, Eithne AU - Costello E AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-0104-8992 AD - Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, Liverpool Cancer Research-UK Centre, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK. FAU - Ilzarbe, Lucas AU - Ilzarbe L AD - Department of Gastroenterology, Hospital del Mar - Parc de Salut Mar, Barcelona, Spain. FAU - Kleeff, Jorg AU - Kleeff J AD - Department of Surgery, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. AD - Department of Visceral, Vascular and Endocrine Surgery, Martin-Luther-Universitat Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany. FAU - Kong, Bo AU - Kong B AD - Department of Surgery, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. FAU - Mora, Josefina AU - Mora J AD - Department of Gastroenterology and Clinical Biochemistry, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain. FAU - O'Driscoll, Damian AU - O'Driscoll D AD - National Cancer Registry Ireland, Cork, Ireland. AD - HRB Clinical Research Facility, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. FAU - Poves, Ignasi AU - Poves I AD - Hospital del Mar - Parc de Salut Mar, Barcelona, Spain. FAU - Scarpa, Aldo AU - Scarpa A AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-1678-739X AD - ARC-Net Research Centre and Department of Diagnostics and Public Health-Section of Pathology, University of Verona, Verona, Italy. FAU - Yu, Jingru AU - Yu J AD - Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet and University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden. FAU - Hidalgo, Manuel AU - Hidalgo M AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-4977-4544 AD - Medical Oncology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. AD - Hospital Universitario Madrid Sanchinarro, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Lawlor, Rita T AU - Lawlor RT AD - ARC-Net Research Centre and Department of Diagnostics and Public Health-Section of Pathology, University of Verona, Verona, Italy. FAU - Ye, Weimin AU - Ye W AD - Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet and University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden. FAU - Carrato, Alfredo AU - Carrato A AD - CIBERONC, Madrid, Spain. AD - Department of Medical Oncology, Ramon y Cajal University Hospital, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Real, Francisco X AU - Real FX AD - CIBERONC, Madrid, Spain. AD - Epithelial Carcinogenesis Group, Spanish National Cancer Research Centre, Madrid, Spain. FAU - Malats, Nuria AU - Malats N AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-2538-3784 AD - Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Group, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Madrid, Spain nuria@cnio.es. AD - CIBERONC, Madrid, Spain. CN - PanGenEU Study Investigators LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't DEP - 20200514 PL - England TA - Gut JT - Gut JID - 2985108R RN - 0 (C-Peptide) RN - 0 (Glycated Hemoglobin A) SB - IM MH - Aged MH - Body Mass Index MH - C-Peptide/blood MH - Case-Control Studies MH - Causality MH - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*complications/etiology/genetics MH - Educational Status MH - Female MH - Glycated Hemoglobin/analysis MH - Humans MH - Male MH - Mediation Analysis MH - Middle Aged MH - Obesity/*complications/genetics MH - Pancreatic Neoplasms/complications/*etiology/genetics MH - Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide/genetics MH - Risk Factors MH - Sex Factors MH - Smoking/adverse effects OTO - NOTNLM OT - cancer epidemiology OT - diabetes mellitus OT - obesity OT - pancreatic cancer COIS- Competing interests: None declared. EDAT- 2020/05/16 06:00 MHDA- 2021/09/08 06:00 CRDT- 2020/05/16 06:00 PHST- 2019/10/03 00:00 [received] PHST- 2020/04/07 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2020/04/12 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2020/05/16 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2021/09/08 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2020/05/16 06:00 [entrez] AID - gutjnl-2019-319990 [pii] AID - 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-319990 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Gut. 2021 Feb;70(2):319-329. doi: 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-319990. Epub 2020 May 14.