PMID- 32719037 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20201002 LR - 20240426 IS - 1473-4893 (Electronic) IS - 1470-2118 (Print) IS - 1470-2118 (Linking) VI - 20 IP - 5 DP - 2020 Sep TI - Predictive model of increased mortality and bed occupancy if thrombolysis becomes the initial treatment strategy for STEMI during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. PG - e170-e172 LID - 10.7861/clinmed.2020-0293 [doi] AB - During the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic the restructure of healthcare services to meet the huge increase in demand for hospital resource and capacity has led to the proposal that where necessary ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) could be managed by intravenous thrombolysis in the first instance as a means of reducing the workforce requirements of a primary angioplasty service run at a heart attack centre. Our modelling, based on data from the UK, shows that contrary to reducing demand, the effect on both mortality and bed occupancy would be negative with 158 additional deaths per year for each 10% reduction in primary angioplasty and at a cost of ~8,000 additional bed days per year for the same reduction. Our analysis demonstrates that specialist services such as heart attack pathways should be protected during the COVID crisis to maximise the appropriate use of resource and prevent unnecessary mortality. CI - (c) Royal College of Physicians 2020. All rights reserved. FAU - Dancy, Luke AU - Dancy L AD - King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK. FAU - O'Gallagher, Kevin AU - O'Gallagher K AD - The King's College London British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, London, UK kevin.o'gallagher@kcl.ac.uk. FAU - Ryan, Matthew AU - Ryan M AD - The King's College London British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, London, UK. FAU - MacCarthy, Philip A AU - MacCarthy PA AD - King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK. FAU - Shah, Ajay M AU - Shah AM AD - The King's College London British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, London, UK. LA - eng GR - CH/1999001/11735/BHF_/British Heart Foundation/United Kingdom PT - Journal Article PT - Review DEP - 20200727 PL - England TA - Clin Med (Lond) JT - Clinical medicine (London, England) JID - 101092853 SB - IM MH - Aged MH - Bed Occupancy/*statistics & numerical data MH - COVID-19 MH - Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/prevention & control MH - Female MH - Hospital Mortality/trends MH - Humans MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - Outcome Assessment, Health Care MH - Pandemics/prevention & control/*statistics & numerical data MH - Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/statistics & numerical data MH - Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/prevention & control MH - Risk Assessment MH - ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis/*mortality/*therapy MH - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology/prevention & control MH - Thrombolytic Therapy/methods/*statistics & numerical data MH - United Kingdom PMC - PMC7539733 OTO - NOTNLM OT - COVID-19 OT - STEMI OT - primary PCI OT - thrombolysis EDAT- 2020/07/29 06:00 MHDA- 2020/10/03 06:00 PMCR- 2020/09/01 CRDT- 2020/07/29 06:00 PHST- 2020/07/29 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2020/10/03 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2020/07/29 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2020/09/01 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - S1470-2118(24)03501-2 [pii] AID - clinmedicine [pii] AID - 10.7861/clinmed.2020-0293 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Clin Med (Lond). 2020 Sep;20(5):e170-e172. doi: 10.7861/clinmed.2020-0293. Epub 2020 Jul 27.