PMID- 32744320 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20210330 LR - 20210330 IS - 1573-4935 (Electronic) IS - 0144-8463 (Print) IS - 0144-8463 (Linking) VI - 40 IP - 8 DP - 2020 Aug 28 TI - Development and validation of nomogram to predict risk of survival in patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma. LID - 10.1042/BSR20200228 [doi] LID - BSR20200228 AB - To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study established a nomogram to predict survival probability in Asian patients with LSCC. A risk prediction nomogram for patients with LSCC, incorporating easily assessable clinicopathologic factors, generates more precise estimations of the survival probability when compared TNM stage alone, but still need additional data before being used in clinical application. BACKGROUND: Due to a wide variation of tumor behavior, prediction of survival in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) patients received curative-intent surgery is an important but formidable challenge. We attempted to establish a nomogram to precisely predict survival probability in LSCC patients. METHODS: A total of 369 consecutive LSCC patients underwent curative resection between 2008 and 2012 at Hunan Province Cancer Hospital were included in the present study. Subsequently, 369 LSCC patients were assigned to a training set (N=261) and a validation set (N=108) at random. On the basis of multivariable Cox regression analysis results, we developed a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were confirmed by calibration curve and a concordance index (C-index), and compared with TNM stage system by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: Six independent parameters to predict prognosis were age, pack years, N-stage, lymph node ratio (LNR), anemia and albumin, which were all assembled into the nomogram. The calibration curve verified excellent models' concordance. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.73 (0.68-0.78), and the area under curve (AUC) of nomogram in predicting overall survival (OS) was 0.766, which were significantly higher than traditional TNM stage. Decision curve analysis further demonstrated that our nomogram had a larger net benefit than the TNM stage. CONCLUSION: A risk prediction nomogram for patients with LSCC, incorporating easily assessable clinicopathologic factors, generates more precise estimations of the survival probability when compared TNM stage alone, but still need additional data before being used in clinical application. CI - (c) 2020 The Author(s). FAU - Cui, Jie AU - Cui J AD - Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital and Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. FAU - Wang, Liping AU - Wang L AD - Department of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Haikou 570102, Hainan Province, PR China. FAU - Zhong, Waisheng AU - Zhong W AD - Department of Head Neck Surgery, Hunan Cancer Hospital and The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha 410000, Hunan Province, PR China. FAU - Chen, Zhen AU - Chen Z AD - Department of Intensive Care Unit, Shunde Hospital, Southern Medical University (The First People's Hospital of Shunde), Foshan 528308, Guangdong Province, PR China. FAU - Tan, Xiaojun AU - Tan X AD - Department of Pathology, Affiliated Cancer Hospital and Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. FAU - Yang, Hong AU - Yang H AD - Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital and Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. FAU - Chen, Jie AU - Chen J AD - Department of Head Neck Surgery, Hunan Cancer Hospital and The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha 410000, Hunan Province, PR China. FAU - Liu, Genglong AU - Liu G AD - Department of Pathology, Affiliated Cancer Hospital and Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. LA - eng PT - Comparative Study PT - Journal Article PT - Observational Study PT - Validation Study PL - England TA - Biosci Rep JT - Bioscience reports JID - 8102797 SB - IM MH - Adult MH - Aged MH - Aged, 80 and over MH - China MH - Clinical Decision-Making MH - *Decision Support Techniques MH - *Esophagectomy/adverse effects/mortality MH - Female MH - Humans MH - Laryngeal Neoplasms/mortality/pathology/*surgery MH - Male MH - Middle Aged MH - Neoplasm Staging MH - *Nomograms MH - Predictive Value of Tests MH - Reproducibility of Results MH - Retrospective Studies MH - Risk Assessment MH - Risk Factors MH - Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Head and Neck/mortality/pathology/*surgery MH - Time Factors MH - Treatment Outcome PMC - PMC7432998 OTO - NOTNLM OT - laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma OT - nomogram OT - overall survival OT - prediction OT - surgical treatment COIS- The authors declare that there are no competing interests associated with the manuscript. EDAT- 2020/08/04 06:00 MHDA- 2021/03/31 06:00 PMCR- 2020/08/17 CRDT- 2020/08/04 06:00 PHST- 2020/02/04 00:00 [received] PHST- 2020/07/28 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2020/07/31 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2020/08/04 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2021/03/31 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2020/08/04 06:00 [entrez] PHST- 2020/08/17 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 225966 [pii] AID - BSR20200228 [pii] AID - 10.1042/BSR20200228 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Biosci Rep. 2020 Aug 28;40(8):BSR20200228. doi: 10.1042/BSR20200228.