PMID- 33254886
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20201204
LR  - 20201214
IS  - 1879-1026 (Electronic)
IS  - 0048-9697 (Linking)
VI  - 754
DP  - 2021 Feb 1
TI  - Simulating changes in polar bear subpopulation growth rate due to legacy 
      persistent organic pollutants - Temporal and spatial trends.
PG  - 142380
LID - S0048-9697(20)35909-X [pii]
LID - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142380 [doi]
AB  - Although atmospheric concentrations of many conventional persistent organic 
      pollutants (POPs) have decreased in the Arctic over the past few decades, levels 
      of most POPs and mercury remain high since the 1990s or start to increase again 
      in Arctic areas, especially polar bears. So far, studies generally focused on 
      individual effects of POPs, and do not directly link POP concentrations in prey 
      species to population-specific parameters. In this study we therefore aimed to 
      estimate the effect of legacy POPs and mercury on population growth rate of 
      nineteen polar bear subpopulations. We modelled population development in three 
      scenarios, based on species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) derived for POPs 
      based on ecotoxicity data for endothermic species. In the first scenario, 
      ecotoxicity data for polar bears were based on the HC(50) (the concentration at 
      which 50% of the species is affected). The other two scenarios were based on the 
      HC(5) and HC(95). Considerable variation in effects of POPs could be observed 
      among the scenarios. In our intermediate scenario, we predicted subpopulation 
      decline for ten out of 15 polar bear subpopulations. The estimated population 
      growth rate was least reduced in Gulf of Boothia and Foxe Basin. On average, PCB 
      concentrations in prey (in mug/g toxic equivalency (TEQ)) posed the largest threat 
      to polar bear subpopulations, with negative modelled population growth rates for 
      the majority of subpopulations. We did not find a correlation between modelled 
      population changes and monitored population trends for the majority of 
      chemical-subpopulation combinations. Modelled population growth rates increased 
      over time, implying a decreasing effect of PCBs, DDTs, and mercury. Polar bear 
      subpopulations are reportedly still declining in four out of the seven 
      subpopulations for which sufficient long-term monitoring data is available, as 
      reported by the IUCN-PBSG. This implies that other emerging pollutants or other 
      anthropogenic stressors may affect polar bear subpopulations.
CI  - Copyright (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
FAU - Hoondert, Renske P J
AU  - Hoondert RPJ
AD  - Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, 
      Faculty of Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Electronic 
      address: R.Hoondert@science.ru.nl.
FAU - Ragas, Ad M J
AU  - Ragas AMJ
AD  - Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, 
      Faculty of Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands; Faculty of 
      Management, Science and Technology, Open University, the Netherlands.
FAU - Hendriks, A Jan
AU  - Hendriks AJ
AD  - Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, 
      Faculty of Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20200922
PL  - Netherlands
TA  - Sci Total Environ
JT  - The Science of the total environment
JID - 0330500
RN  - 0 (Environmental Pollutants)
RN  - DFC2HB4I0K (Polychlorinated Biphenyls)
SB  - IM
MH  - Animals
MH  - Arctic Regions
MH  - Environmental Monitoring
MH  - *Environmental Pollutants/analysis/toxicity
MH  - *Polychlorinated Biphenyls/analysis/toxicity
MH  - Population Growth
MH  - *Ursidae
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Intrinsic growth rate
OT  - POPs
OT  - Polar bear populations
OT  - Risk assessment
COIS- Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known 
      competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared 
      to influence the work reported in this paper.
EDAT- 2020/12/02 06:00
MHDA- 2020/12/15 06:00
CRDT- 2020/12/01 01:03
PHST- 2020/05/26 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2020/08/18 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2020/09/11 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2020/12/01 01:03 [entrez]
PHST- 2020/12/02 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2020/12/15 06:00 [medline]
AID - S0048-9697(20)35909-X [pii]
AID - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142380 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Sci Total Environ. 2021 Feb 1;754:142380. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142380. 
      Epub 2020 Sep 22.